Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Sean Fear’s local election commentary

Why the North Matters to the Conservatives It’s often assumed that the North of England turned against the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher. This is, in fact, incorrect. In both 1983, and 1987, the Conservatives outpolled Labour across the North of England. A big swing away from the Conservatives took place in Liverpool, Manchester, and Newcastle, during the Thatcher years, but in other parts of the North, such as Bury, Bolton, Halifax, Bradford, and the Lancashire mill…

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Could Dannatt’s Iraq comments hasten Blair’s departure?

Could Dannatt’s Iraq comments hasten Blair’s departure?

What’s the fall-out from the Army Head’s Daily Mail interview? This morning’s dramatic comments in the Daily Mail by General Sir Richard Dannatt, that Britain must withdraw from Iraq “soon” or risk serious consequences for Iraqi and British society must be the biggest public split between the head of the Army and the Government in generations. For they run right across Tony Blair’s flagship foreign policy and bring onto the agenda again an issue that has caused so much damage…

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Following the mid-terms on the Iowa Electronic Market

Following the mid-terms on the Iowa Electronic Market

The US “stock market” where political futures are traded With all the focus on the US mid-terms one of the world’s great political betting arenas comes into its own – the Iowa Electronic Markets. This is operated by the state University in Iowa as an academic exercise on how markets function and has grown into a remarkable place where what are termed “political futures” are traded. What happens is that the IEE sets up a market and defines “stock” to…

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Could Cameron be the one who finally gets Blair out?

Could Cameron be the one who finally gets Blair out?

But can Labour MPs risk giving the Tory leader the trophy of the PM’s head With David Cameron enjoying what are by far and away his best ever PMQ reviews in the papers this morning the question has to be asked – how much more of this can Tony Blair take? Could the apparent impossibility of his position force a departure much earlier than next summer? My first reaction on watching the recording was to log onto Betfair to get…

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Guest slot: Peter Smith’s guide to betting odds and value

Guest slot: Peter Smith’s guide to betting odds and value

What do we mean by odds, percentages and the overround? To a betting man, the odds are everything. This may appear obvious but believe me it is often ignored in practice. I suspect this is because our grasp of odds, the implied percentages and our assessment of whether they offer value is somewhat intuitive. But try taking a more analytical approach and you may be surprised at what you find. Start with the simple match bet between two contestants of…

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How did unadjusted polls impact on the politics of the 1990s?

How did unadjusted polls impact on the politics of the 1990s?

ICM solves the great historical polling mystery. On Monday evening there was a vigorous debate on the site after I published an article on how a 3% lead in the ICM poll of October 1993 had been listed in Mori table of all polls as a 15% margin. Some people just did not believe it because the recall of many from that period was of mega Labour leads. This has become highly relevant today with many comparing the current Tory…

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18 Doughty Street – What’s Your Verdict?

18 Doughty Street – What’s Your Verdict?

What do we think of the internet politics TV channel? Tonight saw the launch of the new internet politics TV channel which has been funded by YouGov founder, Stefan Shakespeare and is being fronted by top-bloggers Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome. The plan is to broadcast for four hours each evening and the channel has recruited a number of bloggers, including me, to provide occasional reports. The channel name comes from the address of the elegant terrace house…

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Who are the punters betting against Gordon?

Who are the punters betting against Gordon?

Why isn’t the Chancellor’s price tightening? After this morning’s Populus Poll showing that neither John Reid or Alan Johnson would do better against Cameron than Gordon Brown I finally came to the view that it would take very unusual circumstances indeed for the Chancellor not to succeed Tony Blair. My line until now was that what could derail Brown’s chances would be hard polling evidence that another contender would perform better. That could still happen of course but it is…

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