Is there any value left in the Obama prices?

Is there any value left in the Obama prices?

How serious a contender is the young African-American? After a quiet five weeks following the mid-term elections US politics has suddenly exploded again with the visit this week by the black contender, Barack Obama, to New Hampshire – the state where traditionally the first primary election of US presidential campaigns takes place. Suddenly everybody is talking up the prospects of the 45 year old Democrat Senator from Illinois and the UK media has now begun to pay attention. Last night…

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So what is happening with Cameron’s ratings?

So what is happening with Cameron’s ratings?

The numbers that will do whatever you want them to do From the chart above it is possible to make just about any case you want over how David Cameron is being perceived. If you want to show that he’s moving up then just make your base point the YouGov July survey and compare with the latest numbers. If you want to show that he’s going down make your base survey February 2006. The selective approach to all sorts of…

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Are the union funding plans a step too far?

Are the union funding plans a step too far?

How will Labour fund itself if the changes go through? It’s beginning to look as though the biggest political fall-out from the “cash/loans for honours” affair is going to be on the way that political parties and future elections are funded. And the latest ideas coming out of the Sir Hayden Phillips inquiry look pretty bad for Labour. For the idea is that every year each of the 3.5 million union members who opt to pay the political levy will…

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A plug for my brother’s new movie

A plug for my brother’s new movie

It’s not about politics but about lies, deceit and facing up to the truth In 2004 my brother, John Smithson, won a BAFTA award for the climbing drama, Touching the Void, which continues to attract interest. This weekend his new movie, Deep Water, is released at selected cinemas throughout the UK. It’s a true story that has many parallels with one or two leading figures in contemporary politics. For in 1966 the yachtsman, Donald Crowhurst, sought to deal with his…

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Populus: BAD for the Tories and Brown – GOOD for Cameron

Populus: BAD for the Tories and Brown – GOOD for Cameron

Why does Cameron’s name lift his party so much? The headline figures in today Populus poll in the Times have the Tories at their lowest point since April and only two points ahead of Labour. The headline figures are with changes on last month: CON 34% (-2): LAB 33% (nc): LD 19% (-1). These will be very disappointing figures for the Tories who only a week ago saw the party with an 8% lead with ICM. One of the factors…

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After 12 months will Cameron finally get caught?

After 12 months will Cameron finally get caught?

Is Gordon’s long chase nearly over? For the whole of the year that David Cameron has been Tory leader there has been one consistent opinion poll finding that has produced a similar outcome whenever it has been asked. To the question of how would you vote if it was Brown’s Labour against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems the outcome from whichever pollster has asked the question has always been a better position for the Conservatives. Populus for the monthly…

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This morning’s press targets: Luntz and Brown

This morning’s press targets: Luntz and Brown

..why is a Murdoch paper gunning for Gordon? The main highlights from this morning papers are an attack on the US pollster, Frank Luntz, by Nick Cohen in the Observer and a series of critical stories about Gordon Brown in the Sunday Times that, taken together, look as though the paper is turning against him. The Cohen piece under the heading “How a celebrity pollster created Cameron” covers the impact on the Tory leadership contest last year of the famous…

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Blears says Tories can win with a 1.3% swing. Eh?

Blears says Tories can win with a 1.3% swing. Eh?

Is the Labour chair in danger of “crying wolf”? Clearly, and perhaps we should say thankfully, not everybody studies electoral mathematics with the same intensity as visitors to PBC. But you would have thought that Hazel Blears, chair of the Labour party, would have a broad view of the situation when, as she has done this weekend, she sends out a letter to party members. Of course it is her duty to keep the party at large in a state…

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