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Focus on St. Albans Arguably, St. Albans ought to be a Liberal Democrat Parliamentary seat. For years, prior to 1997, the Liberal Democrats achieved a clear second place in the seat, and by 1996, held 40 out of 58 seats on the District Council. Boundary changes, in 1996, removed all of Harpenden from the constituency, and with it, a huge proportion of the Conservative majority. The Liberal Democrats were favourites to win in 1997 However, Labour surprised everybody by breaking…

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What are we to make of “The Mole’s” prediction? One of the great additions to the UK online media in the past year or so has been the news magazine The First Post. A feature I always look at are the regular articles under the banner “The Mole” who is billed as a “Downing Street Insider. Shortly before the Chancellor rose to his feet to make his pre-Budget statement “The Mole” published a piece suggesting that Tony Blair will be…

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Does the latest price offer value for money? After being sceptical for a long period about Gordon Brown’s chances of making it to Number 10 I changed my view in early October when the price moved to 0.56/1. I got enough on then to cover most of my betting on other contenders when it became clear that nobody else looked able to emerge. As the chart shows there has been a very big change of sentiment since the period after…

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Month by month how Cameron’s first year compares with Blair’s With virtually every political commentator wanting to get into the act of writing something about Cameron’s first year I thought I would take a different tack and compare his fortunes with Tony Blair in the twelve months after he got the Labour leadership. By taking the Mori and ICM poll ratings from Blair’s first year in 1994-95 I’ve produced two charts comparing the Blair poll movements with those that Cameron…

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