How good were you at predicting the past 12 months? Less than a fortnight to go and barring anything dramatic like a Tony Blair resignation the only issue still to be resolved in our “Predicting 2006” competition is the December ICM poll which should come out in the next day or so. Looking back on the entries that were posted here almost a year ago it is amazing how positive people were about the prospects for Charles Kennedy who actually…
Could the honours probe blight Labour for months? A report in the Times this morning might, if accurate, dash hopes at Number 10 and in the Labour party that the honours probe could be resolved “by January” – the timing predicted by Assistant Commander Yates in his letter to MPs last month. In an apparent new turn the Times is reporting this morning that the Crown Prosecution Service has advised police to extend their inquiries into “suspected attempts to hamper…
The Chancellor’s price eases as honours-linked stories continue The Sunday papers won’t make pleasant reading this morning at either Number 10 or Number 11 Downing Street as journalists try to get their teeth into what is going on with the honours case and what this means for the Labour succession. For while coverage of Blair’s quizzing might have been limited on the day by initiating a large number of other stories on the day to “bury the bad news” this…
BBC Radio 4’s “World at One” are planning a feature on political betting and PBC during the holiday period – probably during the “slow news” period between Christmas and the New Year. I recorded a longish discussion a couple of days ago on the past twelve months and what’s likely to be coming up in 2007 – “will there be a Brown Bounce and if so will it be sustained?“; “how will French presidential battle turn out?“and “which candidates will…
Rod Crosby asks: “Can we measure the probability of such an outcome?” Electoral System: The first graph has been compiled from Anthony Wells’ data for the new constituency boundaries. For each percentage point the LibDems might reasonably score in the range 15-25%, the outcome of the Election has been calculated for plausible Conservative LEADS ranging from 0-11%. The concept of Swing implies that the difference between the main two parties is important while their absolute level of support is not….
The State of the Parties Since the start of September, there have been 74 local by-elections on principal authorities. Of these, 41 involved the three main parties, competing with each other. Overall, the Conservatives made a net gain of 5 seats, the Liberal Democrats made a net gain of 6, the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and SNP a gain of 1 each, while Labour made a net loss of 5, Others/Independents made a net loss of 7, and the…
Should punters take note of his reservations on Brown? For the most stinging criticism of the way Downing Street sought to bury yesterday’s news about Tony Blair’s police interview you need go no further than Trevor Kavanagh in the Sun this morning. For the hugely influential political writer for Rupert Murdoch’s best-selling daily paper has no doubts about the spin operation that Number 10 mounted to try to bury the news and he is really gunning for those involved. This…
Punters now putting money on a later departure The news this afternoon that Prime Minister Tony Blair has been interviewed in the honours probe has sent the Blair laving date markets moving. The fact that he was not interviewed under caution and he was not accompanied by a lawyer is causing punters to take the view that his time at Number 10 will probably go on until the early summer. Latest betting is here. Mike Smithson