Is he putting his wife’s health first? John Edwards, the Democrat VP candidate in 2004, is holding a press conference within the next hour amidst reports that he is planning to quit the race to win his party’s nomination for the 2008 race because of his wife’s health. His betting price has started to ease and now stands at about 11/1. In recent months Edwards has been working very hard in Iowa and New Hampshire – which are amongst the…
Is it going to help or hinder him in his quest for the top job? Our chart shows the betting price on Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership over the past three days and reflects the very mixed feelings there are amongst punters. For as can be seen there has been a tightening on the Brown price but he is still not quite as firm a favourite as he was on Monday before the Turnbull “Brown like Stalin” story broke….
Will the income tax move turn the ratings round – and will it last? After going through some pretty torrid times in recent weeks Labour must be feeling pretty chipper about Gordon Brown’s eleventh budget and must be hoping that there will be a reversal in the polls. For the announcement of the 20% basic tax rate came as a real shock and will be leading the bulletins and much of the news coverage for the rest of the day….
Can Brown put the polls and the Turnbull attack behind him? After what the Times is calling “Black Tuesday for the Chancellor” Gordon has a chance this afternoon to steady the nerves of his party and put his bid for the leadership beyond doubt. For the budget is one of those great set-piece parliamentary occasions and is the only time during the year when the Chancellor and the leader of the opposition face each other across the chamber. No doubt…
Normal service resumed The call of the Cheltenham Festival came too soon and loud for me to produce a piece last week but I trust that you are now all fully aware that, following on from the minor hiccup the previous week, we took extreme retribution on IG and more than doubled our profits to date with a remarkable 11.3 profit (£113 to a £10 stake). Week ended 8th March 2007 Tony Blair – Buy 1 point at 55.0 Score…
US punters rate his chances for the nomination at nearly 44% With the massive clamp-down by the US authorities against gambling online the Iowa Electronic markets are taking on a greater importance as a way of seeing how American gamblers are viewing the 2008 White House Race. This is a stock exchange that trades in “political futures” and has been operated by the state university for the past fifteen as a means of studying how markets operate. It is now…
What’s the cumulative effect of stories like this? On top of the overnight news of the disastrous ICM poll figures for Brown there is this attack on him this morning in the Financial Times which has the potential to be seriously damaging and to stick. For a former permanent secretary to the Treasury and cabinet secretary to go on the record with an attack like this in the FT is quite unprecedented and at the very least will provide more…
ICM puts Labour 15% behind with Brown The March ICM poll for the Guardian tomorrow gives the Tories their biggest share from the pollster since August 1992 and has the worst figures ever for Labour’s would-be leader, Gordon Brown. The main voting intention shares with changes on the last ICM poll nine days ago are: CON 41% (+1): LAB 31% (+2): LD 18% (-3). But when the named leader question was put – which party would respondents support in a…