What will be the size of Brown’s budget bounce?

What will be the size of Brown’s budget bounce?

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    Will the income tax move turn the ratings round – and will it last?

After going through some pretty torrid times in recent weeks Labour must be feeling pretty chipper about Gordon Brown’s eleventh budget and must be hoping that there will be a reversal in the polls.

For the announcement of the 20% basic tax rate came as a real shock and will be leading the bulletins and much of the news coverage for the rest of the day.

    The big question is how long will the impact last. Labour needs a sustained recovery and can this provide the platform to get back into contention with the Tories?

The first indication is likely to be from YouGov which is due to have a survey in the Daily Telegraph this weekend. Also due out in the next few days are Communicate Research for the Independent and the March Ipsos-Mori poll. There might be other special polls in the next couple of days.

A lot depends on how this is reported and whether the point that Ming Campbell made so effectively in the Commons on the funding of the new lower basic rate of tax is reflected in the coverage.

    The budget has proved to be a bonanza for those gamblers who followed the advice on the site yesterday to bet on a shorter budget speech than usual. The opening spreads had it at 57-59 minute speech – it is being settled at 48 minutes and 30 seconds

So my £50 a minute spread bet has produced a return of £425 – nice. Thanks to those who posted on the site the Guardian story from Monday that suggested that this was going to happen.

Mike Smithson

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