What if the French polls are horribly wrong again?

What if the French polls are horribly wrong again?

Could they be following 2002 and under-estimating Le Pen? Five years ago France saw one of the biggest polling disasters ever in a western democracy when without exception all the firms surveying opinion ahead of the presidential election failed to pick up the support that the National Front’s Jean-Marie Le Pen was getting. This proved to be central because of the way the French election system works. At the first stage there is no limit on the number of candidates…

Read More Read More

Gordon back in favour on the markets

Gordon back in favour on the markets

The above shows the fluctuating betting price on Brown for the Labour leadership over the past few days. As can be seen the sentiment is once again moving to the Chancellor. As this gets closer and Gordon’s election looks even more inevitable then the price will get tighter. In the past month I’ve bet £1100 on Brown at an average 0.255/1. This evening that is looking good. Mike Smithson

YouGov: “Labour’s deficit 4% bigger with Brown”

YouGov: “Labour’s deficit 4% bigger with Brown”

Will the Chancellor be bringing on Deborah again? There are two news polls in the papers this morning both of which were carried out by the internet pollster YouGov and both of which give fairly similar main voting shares. Only one of them, however, appears under the YouGov name. The main headline figures in the Sunday Times with changes on the last YouGov survey show CON 38% (+1): LAB 32% (nc): LD 16% (-1). I cannot find a figure for…

Read More Read More

Is McDonnell set to get his 44 nominations?

Is McDonnell set to get his 44 nominations?

Has the left-winger been helped by the Trident rebellion? A comment on today’s thread by Pimpernel, who is usually well-informed about Labour affairs, suggests that the left-winger who was first to declare for the leadership, John McDonnell, looks set to get the required 44 nominations to be on the ballot alongside Brown. Pimpernel wrote: “I was told last night that John McDonnell is almost certain now to get enough nominations to stand, but that Meacher is likely to fall short….

Read More Read More

Will the Brownites be rubbishing Frank Luntz this time?

Will the Brownites be rubbishing Frank Luntz this time?

The chancellor beats Cameron in the latest Newsnight focus group Following his “focus group” that was screened on Newsnight at the start of the 2005 Tory party conference the features by the US Republican pollster, Frank Luntz, have become significant political events. That one, arugably, played a key part in Cameron’s eventual victory in the party leadership contest. The last session, during the Labour conference in September, had Luntz asking those taking part to compare Brown with other potential candidates…

Read More Read More

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

The Strange Death of Labour England I, and others, have commented on Labour’s ongoing decline in local government representation. What is striking, however, is just how much of England the Labour Party has now disappeared from. There are now 69 English local authorities without any Labour representation whatsoever, compared to 37 without any Liberal Democrat councillors, and 19 without any Conservatives. Councils without any Labour representation are mostly district councils, some of which are very rural. There are however, 6…

Read More Read More

Who wins – who loses from the party funding report?

Who wins – who loses from the party funding report?

But will the main parties come to a deal? Sir Hayden Phillips’ report on party funding is at last out and leaves a lot of questions to be resolved. The big issue is whether the parties themselves can agree to spending limits on specifix campaigns and caps on individual donations. The challenge is that each of the parites comes at this from a different stand-point. The Tories have now wiped off their debts and by all reports are fundraising very…

Read More Read More