Will Cameron’s hopes of a deal be dashed by the LD membership? In recent days the Tories have stepped up the rhetoric in their bid to win over Lib Dem supporters and also pave the way for a possible post-election working arrangement with the party. But is this doomed to fail because of the political make-up of the ultimate sovereign body within the party – the membership. The above poll finding is from a YouGov survey of 406 Lib Dem…
Will there be another bonanza for Brown BrandIndex punters? Those punters who sold Brown on the IG politicians popularity market in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s budget speech look set to pocket another big parcel of cash as more polling has shown that the contents and the Chancellor himself have gone down badly. Rather than wait for the actual index numbers I closed my Brown positions down yesterday making this, together with the successful budget length bets, my most profitable…
Why Aren’t the Conservatives Doing Better? This may seem an odd question to ask at a time when the Conservative Party has enjoyed several years of steady advance in local government, and now holds almost 40% of council seats in Great Britain, for the first time since 1987. The answer, I think, is really the mirror of my article of last week “The Strange Death of Labour England.†In previous years of local government success, the Conservatives could expect to…
Could the budget “masterstroke” have scuppered Gordon’s chances? What a difference two days make? After all the cheers from his fellow Labour MPs on Wednesday there’s a massive blow to Brown and his party from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph this morning. For in the first poll since the budget there is a 2% increase in the Tory lead. These are the figures compared with the last survey from the internet pollster – CON 39% (+1): LAB 31% (-1): LD…
Can Gordon ignore the attacks from the left? With the Brown betting price for Labour leader now moving to 0.2/1 there’s a sharp attack on his strategy from someone who, until now, was one of the Chancellor’s biggest and most influential media supporters – Polly Toynbee of the Guardian. Part of her piece is reproduced above (click on it to read the whole article) and her point can be summed up in on sentence – “For the sake of a…
Is he putting his wife’s health first? John Edwards, the Democrat VP candidate in 2004, is holding a press conference within the next hour amidst reports that he is planning to quit the race to win his party’s nomination for the 2008 race because of his wife’s health. His betting price has started to ease and now stands at about 11/1. In recent months Edwards has been working very hard in Iowa and New Hampshire – which are amongst the…
Is it going to help or hinder him in his quest for the top job? Our chart shows the betting price on Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership over the past three days and reflects the very mixed feelings there are amongst punters. For as can be seen there has been a tightening on the Brown price but he is still not quite as firm a favourite as he was on Monday before the Turnbull “Brown like Stalin” story broke….
Will the income tax move turn the ratings round – and will it last? After going through some pretty torrid times in recent weeks Labour must be feeling pretty chipper about Gordon Brown’s eleventh budget and must be hoping that there will be a reversal in the polls. For the announcement of the 20% basic tax rate came as a real shock and will be leading the bulletins and much of the news coverage for the rest of the day….