More bad polling news on the budget

More bad polling news on the budget

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    Will there be another bonanza for Brown BrandIndex punters?

Those punters who sold Brown on the IG politicians popularity market in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s budget speech look set to pocket another big parcel of cash as more polling has shown that the contents and the Chancellor himself have gone down badly.

Rather than wait for the actual index numbers I closed my Brown positions down yesterday making this, together with the successful budget length bets, my most profitable political betting week for a year.

For today’s Populus Poll in the Times, reinforces the YouGov survey yesterday, on the contents of the speech and the view of Brown himself. This budget, as the paper’s headline puts it has “backfired” on the chancellor.

    Make no mistake the polls are seriously bad news for the party and its would-be leader. Wednesday’s budget was supposed to provide the platform for Brown succession to Number 10 and a Labour recovery.

Just recall the reaction of Labour MPs at 1.19pm on Wednesday when Gordon sat down and then look at the the main Populus numbers.

  • More than twice as many people think that they will pay higher rather than lower taxes.
  • The sample split by 30%-57% on whether they thought Brown would be a good prime minister. Only three months ago the Pollster reported a 40%-49% view.
  • By 26% to 8% voters say that the Budget will make them less rather than more likely to vote Labour at the next election with Mr Brown as leader. 60% said it would make no difference.
  • But by 54% to 34% the sample rated him as a good chancellor. That was down from 61% – 32% last December.
  • I am investing half my profits from this week to bet against Gordon getting the job. My instincts have seen me right so far and I will continue to back my judgement. Labour wants a winner – not a loser.

    Mike Smithson

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