These are the figures, just published on the Ipsos-Mori website, of the first national political poll by the firm since January. As is usual the headline figures are restricted to those “certain to vote”. It should be noted that the survey involving 1,983 adults aged 18+ at 176 sampling points across Great Britain was conducted face-to-face on 9-15 March 2007. So the poll is a little bit old and took place before the the last CR, ICM and YouGov surveys….
Tory CR lead slashed as Populus predicts a Scottish Labour collapse The first two of three polls which are expected today have produced good and bad news for Labour. Communicate Research for the Independent has the following shares with comparisons on a month ago CON 35% (-5): LAB 31% (+2): LD 20% (+3). Populus for the Times on May’s Scottish election has SNP 38%: LAB 28%: LD 15%: CON 14% in the constituency section. On the regional list it is…
And will Devolution-Day be the moment they line up behind Brown? Following yesterday dramatic meeting between Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams it is becoming clear that Devolution Day – May 8th 2007 – will play a critical part in Tony Blair’s exit time-table. For the achievement of peace between the communities will become a major element of the Prime Minister’s legacy and provide the backdrop of his historic departure announcement. And according to the Times this morning May 8th will…
This Week – Make Hay from Straw No surprise that we’re leading off this week with man of the moment, Jack Straw. It seems to us he suddenly has everything going for him – campaign leader, the promise of High Office and the opportunity, as a former Foreign Secretary, to pronounce weightily on the Iran crisis. He looks a snip at 76.2. Buy two points. Tony Blair’s rise in the popularity chart shows no sign of stopping. He led us…
Sadly William Hill’s 6/1 price is no more Over the past thirty-six hours dozens of PB users have been putting as much cash as they can on Jack Straw as next Chancellor at what appeared to be the the very generous price of 6/1. For clearly the leader of the house and the man who has been both home and foreign secretaries under Blair is going to be rewarded with a plum position if and when Brown takes over. For…
What’s behind Mandelson’s series of weekend announcements? Anybody who has followed the news over the past couple of days could not have missed the presence of the former close aide to Blair, Britain’s current commissioner at the EU, and the person that Brown is said to blame for him not getting the labour leadership in 1994. We’ve had a spate of interviews with the ex-Labour communications chief, the news of his desire to step down from his EU role in…
Miliband tightens and Brown eases after reports of Blair’s backing This is the front page of the Observer this morning which has led to big changes in the Labour leadership betting. Tony Blair, according to the paper, is telling allies that if the environment secretary stands against Brown then “he would win”. According to an unnamed minister Blair said of Miliband “he really has got to want it… He really has to go for it.” The news comes on the…
Peter Smith reports that Blair Backers are Beaming …again Whether or not it was his performance on Comic Relief, there is no doubt that those who followed our advice to back Blair last week were smiling all the way to the bank. The great showman continued his climb in YouGov’s Popularity poll, reaching his highest score of the year and moving ahead of his Downing Street neighbour…which gives rise to some interesting if somewhat mischievous speculation. What if Our Tone…