Price update 1730 BST: The money goes on Royal
The chart shows the price movements on the Betfair market over the past six hours. Royal, who was at 3/1 this morning, is now at 1.95.1. Mike Smithson
Bet on Royal today and Sarkozy tomorrow
New poll shows the leading candidates are neck and neck Two and a half months ago, just as my book The Political Punter – How to make money betting on politics was being finalised, my publishers suggested that I should add a betting guide to the French Presidential election. This put me into a mild panic because the publication date had then been fixed for just five days before the first round of voting and I was being asked to…
Some pictures from the PBC party
The light shines on Guido. From left to right here we have David Kendrick, Jonathan, Paul Maggs (Double Carpet) and Guido – a very rare picture! Julian h and Ian Jones with the suited Marcus Wood in the background My daughters Becky and Cayt, me speaking, Peter from Putney and TomThumb Augustus Carp showing people round the National Liberal Club. David Herson (yellow tie) is at the back. Could those in the picture who I have not identified please make…
Which French pollster has got tomorrow right?
Does the Le Pen support explain the gap between the firms? The above table has been adapted from the excellent list in Wikipedia and shows the range of opinion polling in the final week before the crucial first round of voting tomorrow. The top two tomorrow evening then go into a run off election on May 6th. So we have a polling range from a 6.5% margin for Sarkorzy over Royal to just 1%. Both cannot be right. In 2002…
Sean Fear on the local elections
This week he makes his predictions Last week, I explained the background to these local elections. This week, I shall outline my predictions. Scotland is relatively easy to predict. The introduction of PR means that Labour would lose at least 100 council seats, even if their support stayed at its 2003 level. In all likelihood, Labour’s support will be lower than in 2003, and their loss of seats will be around 150. The SNP are likely to gain a similar…
Blair exit time-table revealed
This has just been published on the The First Post site and it looks as though we might still be arguing over which quarter Blair will cease to be Labour leader. Mike Smithson
Have the markets got Scotland right?
Populus shows big Lib Dem surge Our best betting price chart shows the changes since January in the best odds that are available on the SNP and Labour in next month’s election for the Scottish Parliament. A new Populus poll in the Times this morning has the following shares for Scotland compared with a similar survey last month. Constituencies SNP 34 (-4): LAB 30 (+2): LD 18 (+3): CON 13 (-1). List vote SNP 34 (-1): LAB 27 (-3): LD…
Is something big about to break?
My voice-mail from the Mole I’ve just picked up a voice-mail message that was left on my mobile by a Scottish sounding man earlier this evening. He said he was “The Mole” of The First Post fame. This is the full text of the message that was left: “Mike you wont me know but I think you read my column – I write the Mole in the First Post. I’m just phoning you to give you heads up that you…