Have the markets got Scotland right?

Have the markets got Scotland right?

chart scotland 200407.JPG

    Populus shows big Lib Dem surge

Our best betting price chart shows the changes since January in the best odds that are available on the SNP and Labour in next month’s election for the Scottish Parliament.

A new Populus poll in the Times this morning has the following shares for Scotland compared with a similar survey last month.

Constituencies SNP 34 (-4): LAB 30 (+2): LD 18 (+3): CON 13 (-1).
List vote SNP 34 (-1): LAB 27 (-3): LD 18 (+4): CON 14 (nc) GRN 3

The significant feature is the big growth in the Lib Dem vote. A worry for the SNP and Labour is that Scottish polls have a history of over-stating the two parties and of considerably understating the Tory share.

In 2003 the Tories got 16.65 in the first section and 15.5% of the list votes – both figures which are higher than today’s survey. Given that there have been big changes nationally in the past four years I think it’s safe to assume that the totals that Populus reports today are very much on the low side.

    The question is whether there is any overstatement of the SNP and Labour votes and if so by how much?

My guess is that the SNP will still end up as winners but that this race might be tighter than it appears.

  • Amazon sells out of “The Political Punter: A couple of people have emailed me to say that Amazon has run out of stocks of my book, The Political Punter, which was launched on Tuesday. It is quoting a delivery delay of several weeks. My understanding is that as of yesterday afternoon Politicos still had some books available for immediate delivery.
  • Mike Smithson

    Comments are closed.