What happened when Major replaced Maggie The table which I have adapted from the ICM web-site shows what happened to the party ratings in the ICM Guardian polls before and after John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher in November 1990. Polling, of course, was very different in those days and nothing like as accurate as it is today. Major went on to win the 1992 general election with an 8% lead on the national vote – something that none of the…
Should Gordon be thinking of a July election? This month’s monthly Ipsos-Mori survey, published in the Observer this morning, underlines how well Labour is doing following nearly seven weeks of almost uninterrupted positive media coverage. These are the figures compared with the May survey which was published first on Politicalbetting – CON 36% (-1): LAB 39% (+4): LD 15% (-3). Like most of Mori’s major polls the survey was carried out using face to face interviews and took place over…
But is Cameron in danger if he “goes on about Europe? The above is from a survey that was funded by the former UKIP-backer and Yorkshire multi-millionaire, Sir Paul Sykes, on public views on whether there should be a referendum on a new EU treaty that gives more power to Brussels. Given the overwhelming view on this and other questions in poll there clearly could have been better ways to start the Brown premiership. But there’s nothing the incoming PM…
Are Blair-Brown winning the spin war over the Euro summit? If there is one symbol above all that represents “Britishness” (G. Brown please note) it is, surely, the British sausage. For after that wonderful Yes Minister programme all those years ago it’s a good metaphor for Britain’s relations with the EU. Viewers will no doubt recall the classic episode of the programme when a distracting tactic was drawn up to “save the British sausage” as a mean of boosting the…
Isn’t he winning the battle for Ming’s supporters anyway? The above chart shows how declared Lib Dem supporters in the regular monthly YouGov polls have responded to the pollster’s forced choice question of whether they would prefer a Cameron-led Tory government or a Brown-led Labour one. This is not asking for voting intention; there is no option to choose the Lib Dems or one of the minor parties; but how the Lib Dem supporters split is regarded as a reasonable…
Are Labour Past the Worst ? Prior to May’s local elections, I had anticipated that Labour’s projected share of the national vote would fall below 25%, and that they would clearly finish behind the Liberal Democrats. I had thought that the Liberal Democrats (and some minor parties) would make considerable gains at Labour’s expense. These were reasonable assumptions, given that Labour’s local by-election record in the months leading up to the local elections had been dreadful, the Party’s poll ratings…
Was Brown being serious or just playing politics? Perhaps the element that shows the level of seriousness that Brown attached to his desire to create “a Government of all the talents†is the job that was actually offered to Paddy Ashdown – Northern Ireland secretary. Important? Yes – but not as big a job as it was now the power sharing government at Stormont is operating properly. Surely given Ashdown’s former role as the international community’s High Representative for Bosnia…
But is there still value in a Harriet Harman bet? If punters have got this right then the Education secretary, Alan Johnson, looks pretty certain to pick up the Labour deputy leader crown when the results are announced this weekend. Our chart, showing prices reflected as implied probabilities, indicates the big swing that there’s been in the past few days. But surprisingly betting has been very light. Only £74,000 has been matched on the Betfair market reflecting the lack of…