My favourite defector quote…
Denis Healey on David Owen…“The good fairy gave him thick dark locks, matinee idol features and a frightening intellect. ‘Unfortunately, the bad fairy also made him a shit.†Mike Smithson
How big a blow to Cameron is the Davies defection?
Will the Tories have an uncomfortable final Blair PMQs? However much Tories try to spin it the defection of Quentin Davies is a major coup for Gordon Brown on the eve of his arrival at Number 10. It also provides some great ammunition for Tony Blair for tomorrow’s final PMQs. The Tory leader had no doubt planned to focus on Harriet Harman’s mixed messages over Iraq and this will spike his guns a bit. Cameron will be furious and he…
PBC Deputy Leader Competition Results
Agingjb by a landslide – top 3 well clear of the field Following Harriet Harman’s nail-biting win in the the Labour Deputy Leadership, the results of the PBC Competition have now been finalised – detailed results are available here. Only five entrants tipped Harman to win, and four of them lead the competition rankings. Agingjb (post 45) had a clear win in the contest, with a score of just 7.68 (0.57 for the winner and 7.11 for the first preferences),…
Tory lead moves to 5% with Communicate Research
Has Brown been hurt by the Ashdown cabinet row? With every bit of detail in every poll being scrutinised to the nth degree at the moment there’s very disappointing news for Labour this morning with the June poll by Communicate Research in the Independent. After the Ipsos-Mori survey showing them 3% they must have been hoping that other pollsters would follow suit. The topline CR figures with with changes from May survey are CON 37%(+2): LAB 32%(+1): LD 18%(-1) –…
Could Harman’s Iraq “apology” spoil Gordon’s honeymoon?
When does agreeing your sorry mean you are not sorry? On the first full day of Labour’s new team the main political story is how Harriet Harman is dealing with comments during the campaign in which she appeared to suggest that Labour should say sorry for Iraq. This is how the Guardian is reporting what she said in the Newsnight debate on May 29th: “….the candidates were asked: “Do you think the party should say sorry for what has happened…
What are the betting lessons of yesterday?
When following the polls and the markets can be expensive? If things had been going to plan I would have spent yesterday in Manchester with the Sky News team acting as one of Adam Boulton’s pundits at the Labour leadership conference. Thankfully circumstances prevented the trip because otherwise I might have been associated with the TV station’s wrong call, along with the Daily Telegraph, that Alan Johnson had won. For it’s all too easy to get carried away with what…
Whooooooooops
This is how the Telegraph web-site reported the “news”. My guess is that it will not stay on the site for very long. Sky was also calling it for Johnson almost until the end. Mike Smithson
Late betting move to Harman
With only minutes to go before the contenders are told there’s been a late move to Harman – as our chart showing the odds represented as an implied probability shows. Mike Smithson