Is being on the right side of the polls enough?

Is being on the right side of the polls enough?

Can Brown be liberal and illiberal at the same time? At the recent British Polling Council conference I got into a debate with a Labour party official about being mis-led by polling findings and that the only thing that mattered was the electoral impact. Thus pursuing a policy that was broadly supported was not necessarily the right thing to do. He quoted the national ID card issue which poll after poll has shown has broad public support and on which…

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Could Ming be Gordon’s first victim?

Could Ming be Gordon’s first victim?

But would a new leader pose a bigger threat to Brown’s ambitions? With the change-over in the Tory leadership being the catalyst for the January 2006 departure of the last Lib Dem leader, Charles Kennedy, could the arrival of a new Labour leader have the same effect on Ming? For the reverberations from Monday’s offer to Ming of ministerial places for Lib Dems are continuing to dominate the political headlines and any change in the line-up of party leaders can…

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The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition

The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition

Part 1 For each of the six candidates, predict their overall percentage share of the first preference votes to one decimal place (ie for all three sections of the electoral college combined – do not make a prediction for the three individual components). To assist in running the competition, please make your predictions in the following order: • Hilary Benn • Hazel Blears • John Cruddas • Peter Hain • Harriet Harman • Alan Johnson Part 2 Select one candidate…

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Was Paddy Ashdown behind the Guardian story?

Was Paddy Ashdown behind the Guardian story?

Could the ex-LD leader be being courted by Gordon? After a morning of denials, rumours, claim and counter-claims there is a suggestion that the person behind the Guardian story is the former leader, Paddy Ashdown, who was involved in the 1997 linkage between the Lib Dems and Labour. According to the blog by the Daily Mail’s Ben Brogan “Westminster rumour has it that it came from a briefing by Lord Ashdown to Alan Rusbridger, the Guardian editor, which explains the…

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Would accepting this be the end of Ming?

Would accepting this be the end of Ming?

Should the Tories be cheering such a development? Reproduced above is part of the top political story in the Guardian this morning which, if true and implemented, could change the face of British politics. For Ming Campbell and the Lib Dems such an offer could appear to be very tempting and for Brown it would be a way of showing from day one that his approach is going to be vastly different from Tony Blair’s. Yet such an offer if…

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Has the tide turned for John Howard?

Has the tide turned for John Howard?

Guest slot on the Australian election by Steven Phelps There have been some major changes in the polls and in the betting on the coming Australian election since I last reported. First, a quick recap. The next Aussie General Election is expected to be held in October this year. Pollsters quote a Two Party-Preferred (TPP) basis result, which allows for second preferences. The Coalition, led by John Howard, has won the last 4 General Elections, 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004….

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How the views of Sun readers get magnifed by YouGov

How the views of Sun readers get magnifed by YouGov

Is this why the Lib Dems do so badly with the pollster? One of the great puzzles of modern polling is why the Lib Dems always seem to have the lowest shares with the internet firm, YouGov. Thus the latest 14% total compares with the 21% that ICM was reporting in its latest survey. Clearly there’s something about the methodology of the two firms that causes such a disparity. Thanks to data that was prepared for last Friday’s British Polling…

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Voters believe they’d be better off under Dave

Voters believe they’d be better off under Dave

More findings from Sunday’s YouGov poll released The above is reproduced from the detailed data from the YouGov poll that appeared in the Sunday Times and has just been made available on the pollster’s web-site in line with British Polling Council transparency requirements. I find the response to the “Who would you trust more to raise your and your family’s standard of living?” question very surprising, especially in view of all positive scores that Gordon has had as Chancellor. As…

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