Seven reasons why Boris might be in with a chance

Seven reasons why Boris might be in with a chance

ONE The only electors whose views matter are the 30-40% of Londoners that bother to vote at local elections – a high level of name recognition could matter a lot. TWO The inherent element in the UK electoral system that skews General Elections in favour of Labour works in precisely the opposite way in the London Mayoral Election where it’s aggregate votes across the capital that count not seats. THREE There are substantially higher turn-out rates in outer Tory and…

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Labour becomes a firmer favourite in Southall

Labour becomes a firmer favourite in Southall

But will the party’s “odds-on jinx” continue? The chart shows the best betting odds for the Ealing Southall by election, expressed as an implied probability of victory, over the weekend. So if the markets have got this right then Gordon will survive his first serious electoral test. The main oddity is that I cannot recall a by election ever where the price on the third favourite was so tight. But in the last two by elections where Labour went into…

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Can Boris beat Ken?

Can Boris beat Ken?

It’s just been confirmed that Boris Johnson IS to seek the Tory nomination to stand for the Mayor of London next May. On that day also there will be the elections for the London Assembly which in 2000 and 2004 have seen the Tories winning the popular vote across London. The reason that they failed in the Mayoral race is that so many Tory and Lib Dem supporters switched to Ken in the Mayor ballot. Can Boris retain the Tory…

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Are marriage supporters more likely to be voters?

Are marriage supporters more likely to be voters?

Could this be an election battleground? Listening to Radio Four’s “Any Questions” while driving home from Burgundy on Saturday I was very struck by the way the Tory approach to marriage which has come out of the Iain Duncan Smith Social Justice Commission seemed to be resonating with the audience. This is backed up by the other part of the latest ICM poll – the results of which are featured in the Daily Telegraph this morning and reproduced above. One…

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By special request – 7 Gordons!

By special request – 7 Gordons!

The polls are good – so why no betting move for an early election? In a message that got held up in the spam filter Red Flag asked why we did not publish a picture this morning of seven smiling Gordons to illustrate graphically the lead that today’s ICM poll reported for Labour. Fair enough – but the big news picture was that of Tony Lit and Tony Blair. Also I only got back home from holiday this afternoon and…

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Who will these voters choose on Thursday?

Who will these voters choose on Thursday?

Will today’s revelations stop them from voting for Lit? The reaction of punters to today’s 7% ICM Labour lead and the revelations that the Tory candidate in Ealing Southall had been at Tony Blair farewell fund-raiser and had donated £5,000 has caused a tightening of the Labour price on the by election market. But are Labour backers correct? For the last two general elections have shown what a cohesive electoral force the Sikh community is in the constituency and it…

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Will this damage the Conservative chances in Southall?

Will this damage the Conservative chances in Southall?

What will be the impact of Lit attending a Labour fundraiser? There are two major UK politics stories today – the first being news of Southall Conservative candidate Tony Lit’s appearance at a recent Labour fundraising dinner – more details here. With the by-election only four days away, it remains to be seen what chance the Conservatives still have to win. The second is the publication of an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph giving Labour 40, the Conservatives 33…

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My by election bets

My by election bets

Just arriving in Calais after my short holiday in time to focus on the next five days of intense activity for the by elections. How will Gordon go down when real voters cast real votes next Thursday? Will the bounce that we’ve seen in the polls be sustained with Labour comfortably retaining both seats, albeit with reduced majorities? I’ve got £400 at risk already and no doubt I’ll be tempted more in the coming days. These are my bets: £200…

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