Just arriving in Calais after my short holiday in time to focus on the next five days of intense activity for the by elections.

How will Gordon go down when real voters cast real votes next Thursday? Will the bounce that we’ve seen in the polls be sustained with Labour comfortably retaining both seats, albeit with reduced majorities?

I’ve got £400 at risk already and no doubt I’ll be tempted more in the coming days. These are my bets:

£200 at 6/5 that Labour’s Sedgefield share will be down on 2005. This is my banker bet because Labour always finds it hard to get its votes out when the government of the country is not at stake. My expected profit here should cover any losses on the other riskier bets.

£100 at 12/1 that Labour will not make the top two in Ealing Southall. This will probably a loser but with the race apparently so close there must be a greater than 8% chance that this will happen. William Hill offered me this price after I had put out a wager offer on the site.

£100 at 10/1 that Labour will lose a by election before Gordon either goes to the country, withdraws fully from Iraq, has another child or sees Raith Rovers win promotion. The great thing about this bet is that it will still stand even if Labour are returned safely in both seats.

I might also put a speculative bet on the Lib Dems in Sedgefield provided the odds are right. Never write off the Lib Dems ability to pull of by election sensations however unlikely it might appear. In February last year Labour were at 1/5 even as the Dunfermline returning officer was about to announce the result.

I’ll be back posting normally on Monday.

Mike Smithson