Would a “back me or sack me” move stop the whisperings? I don’t know what the look on David Cameron’s face was like when he heard the Ealing Southall result in the early hours of yesterday but could it have been as bad as this Daily Mail picture taken at the count in Stafford at the 1997 General Election when he lost a Tory seat to Labour. Ealing Southall, like his first bid to become an MP ten years ago,…
The Big Issues Don’t Always Sway Elections Even in general elections, matters that are of purely local significance can seriously affect the outcome in any given constituency. The obvious example is hospital reorganisations. Many health service professionals are convinced that closing A & E units in smaller hospitals, and concentrating services on larger hospitals, produces better health outcomes. They may very well be right, but the political consequences can be horrendous for any governing party trying to defend the seat…
Will today’s news make state funding more likely? With the two by elections having been known for some time is it just a coincidence that the news about the cash for honours investigation not going to lead to charges is coming out at the same time? Is some news management going on here and if so why? Friday, of course, is usually the best time to announce things that you think might be controversial because they are less likely to…
Has Cameron got the most problems this morning? Judged by the standards of normal mid-term by elections the reduced Labour majorities in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield were sensational victories for Labour. To have kept its average vote share loss in both seats down to 10.7% was something that the party can take real comfort from. But these are not normal times and these cannot be judged as normal mid-term by elections. We have what’s being presented as a change of…
Please use this thread to continue commenting as events unfold. Double Carpet
Prize competition for the most amusing parody In addition to the election forecast competition I thought I’d do something different. What are we all going to be saying tomorrow morning? What will be the approach that prominent PBC posters will be taking. Now I hope that the following site regulars do not mind but they have all got their own distinctive styles and have been posting here for a long time. So how will they try to explain what the…
Who’ll have the most to smile about once the results are declared? With 74 entries received before the competition closed, the breakdowns are as follows: Sedgefield Predicted to win: Labour 70, Lib Dems 4, Conservatives 0 Average vote shares: Lab 45.8, LD 27.2, Con 16.0 Southall Predicted to win: Labour 54, Conservatives 10, Lib Dems 10 Average vote shares: Lab 35.3, LD 29.0, Con 26.8 JohnLoony average: 238 votes The full listing of entries is available here: By-Election Predictions If…
Does Watson’s campaign approach work? This is Tom Watson – the Labour MP for West Bromwich and campaign manager in Ealing Southall who has a very personal approach to campaigning – he gets personal. Rather than focus on policy or issues his big idea is to find what’s perceived as a weakness in the character of the opposition candidate he most fears and then attacks and attacks it. At Birmingham Hodge Hill in July 2004 he sought to destroy the…