How long until a Labour majority is the betting favourite?

How long until a Labour majority is the betting favourite?

The money goes on the Brown bounce being sustained Even though today’s ICM poll in the Guardian, reported in the previous thread, shows a one point drop in Labour’s lead the sentiment on the betting markets is moving towards Labour being returned with an overall majority for an unprecedented fourth term. On the Cantor Spreadfair commons seat market this morning prices are CON 252-255.7: LAB 307.2-310.4: LD 48.1-54 seats. So the mid-point in the Labour spread is nearly 309 seats…

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Labour maintain substantial lead with ICM

Labour maintain substantial lead with ICM

But no by election bounce for Gordon The July ICM survey for the Guardian is just out and shows a one point decline in the Labour lead. The figures compared with the last ICM poll a week and a half ago are CON 32% (-1): LAB 38% (-2): LD 20% (+1) The survey took place from the Friday after the by elections and finished on Sunday evening. So the headlines were mostly dominated by Labour’s success and the progress that…

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Was the Rwanda trip a big mistake for Cameron?

Was the Rwanda trip a big mistake for Cameron?

And ICM looks like another 6-7% Labour lead With the flooding story continuing to dominate the news the Guardian has postponed publication of its ICM survey for July which was carried out over the weekend in the immediate aftermath of Thursday’s by elections. So we don’t know the precise figures but Michael Crick on Newsnight last night suggested it was in the same region as the last ICM poll a week and a half ago which had Labour 7% ahead….

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What’s the political fall-out from the flooding?

What’s the political fall-out from the flooding?

How are Gord and Dave doing as the crisis continues? As was seen in the US in 2005 the way that governments respond to natural disasters such as flooding can have a significant and lasting political impact. The manner of the Bush administration’s response Hurricane Katrina was cited by many as a major reason why the Republicans did so badly in the US mid-term elections last November. Clearly what we have had in the UK in the past few weeks…

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Was Cameron’s mistake to have even tried?

Was Cameron’s mistake to have even tried?

Are their lessons from what Labour did after Black Wednesday? As we’ve discussed on the previous thread things don’t look too good for the Tory leader, David Cameron, this morning. With two new opinion polls showing Labour in the 40s and reports of Tory MPs wanting a confidence vote this is certainly going to be a period that will test him to the hilt. Much of the current crisis has been driven by Thursday’s by elections in Sedgefield and Ealing…

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Labour’s YouGov lead jumps to 7%

Labour’s YouGov lead jumps to 7%

The pressure builds up on Cameron Another big boost to Brown’s Labour comes with a YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times showing the party now has a 7% margin. These are the shares compared with the last YouGov poll three weeks ago – CON 33% (-2): LAB 40% (+2): LD 15% (nc). Also in tomorrow’s papers is a report in the Sunday Telegraph that “At least two Conservative MPs – and possibly as many as six – have called for…

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PBC By-Election Competition: the results

PBC By-Election Competition: the results

So how did you do? Full results for the competition are available here: Sedgefield & Southall Results In Sedgefield, Ian Catchpole, Tyson, and Stephen Fielding led the way with scores of 2.3, 3.5, and 5.0, while in Southall, Mandroid, Joe Bentley, and Tyson had the best results, with 5.4, 6.8, and 7.4. Finally, on the tie-breaker, Peter Cranie and Stonch both predicted JohnLoony’s vote tally to be 187 against an actual result of 188. If you don’t have Excel, these…

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