Firstly… today’s polls, including a DEAD-HEAT ComRes in the Independent has Lab 36, Con 36, LD 15 YouGov for GMTV has Lab 38, Con 35, LD 15 Obviously the CR poll showing the parties tied will make the biggest news, but even the YouGov poll shows that Labour’s lead is now small. Is that it for Gordon’s honeymoon, has the “Brown Bounce” run out of steam – and can we say goodbye to the prospect of an autumn election? Further…
Politics stories from today’s newspapers There are no major stories today, as evidenced by the fact that most of the newspapers have different leads, and it doesn’t look as though there are any opinion polls out today either – although I’m sure that someone will correct me if there are. However, there is still plenty of political news and comment available, and the following articles may be of interest: The Sunday Times reports that Brown has come under more pressure…
PBC Poster of the Year 2006-7 revealed Following a hard-fought campaign, but one which all candidates acknowledged was very clean and held in a good spirit, the final results of the competition can now be announced, with the official count of the online electronic voting being conducted at 6.30 Friday – 438 valid votes were cast. Sean Fear is the winner of the contest, with 95 votes (22%) and is the 2006-7 Poster of the Year. Sean T (79 votes/18%)…
Sean Fear’s Friday slot A couple of weeks ago, I examined the impact of parties to the Right of the Conservatives. This week, I do the same with parties to the Left of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Back in the 1980s, quite large numbers of people supported Labour’s policies of nationalisation, unilateral nuclear disarmament, restoration of the right to secondary picketing and the closed shop, and ending the sale of council houses. In fact, I can remember intelligent people…
Anthony Wells of UKPolling Report emails me to tell me that he has asked Populus to disclose the poll referred to by Benedict Brogan in his blog. He wrote” “Tories say privately their internal Populus poll paints a completely different picture – the parties are level pegging and Mr Cameron’s approval rating is climbing”. Anthony’s view is that there is a requirement to disclose under the British Polling Council’s transparency rules. Normally leaks of “private polls” don’t name the pollster….
Is the Lib Dem share of 14% down to the firm’s methodology? In the first of four major polling surveys that we will see in the next few days the internet pollster, YouGov, for the Daily Telegraph has the following shares with the changes on its last poll almost three weeks ago CON 33% (+1): LAB 41% (-1): LD 14% (nc). So the Tories will be a touch relieved that like ICM on Monday YouGov is showing a reduction in…
And now the final round of voting – for the Overall PBC Poster of the Year As it turned out the voting in three of the four categories was pretty clear-cut. Sean Fear, who starting posting on PBC in the summer of 2004, has built up a loyal following from people of all allegiances and his overwhelming victory in the Tory section was probably quite predictable. Well done also to David Herdson who came second and joins Sean in the…
Does the Lib Dem switch to Labour look permanent? One of the features that I focus on when the detailed data from ICM and CR polls comes out is how votes are churning between the parties. Both firms ask how respondents voted last time and both present their data in a way that gives some clues. The latest data from this week’s survey for the Guardian has some encouraging short-term news for the Tories but does raise the question about…