Now Ipsos-Mori reports a one point Labour lead

Now Ipsos-Mori reports a one point Labour lead

Are we entering the era of Boat Race politics? The massive monthly face-to-face survey by Ipsos-Mori is out in the Observer this morning and shows that Labour, on 41% have just pipped ahead of the Tories on 40%. The actual figures with comparisons on a telephone survey from a sample of half the size from the same pollster a fortnight ago are CON 40%(-1): LAB 41%(+3): LD 13%(+2). Looking at today’s figures with the last directly comparable poll, Ipsos-Mori’s September…

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Is there money to be made from the yellow optimists?

Is there money to be made from the yellow optimists?

What’s behind the Lib Dem price rally? If you feed the latest figures from the main pollsters that have reported since the Tory conference into the Anthony Wells commons seat calculator the highest number that you get for the Lib Dems is 21 MPs from the Populus survey three weeks ago. The latest ICM poll makes it 18 seats with both YouGov and Ipsos-Mori showing a bare 11 seat total. Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus site is even worse with his…

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A special note from Peter the Punter

A special note from Peter the Punter

Tote ‘Ten To Follow’ Competition – A Politicalbetting.com Entry? The Tote’s popular Ten to Follow competition for the jumps season kicks off shortly. As well as being a decent value bet, it provides lots of fun throughout the season and attracts much support from serious and occasional punters alike. The general idea is that you pick out ten horses from the Tote’s list and they score points as and when they succeed in their races during the season. Entry is…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Focus on Wales “Punter” has asked me to comment on the Welsh constituencies on several occasions. As there are 40 Welsh constituencies, then my comments on the likely outcome at the next election must be brief. Wales has been a left-wing stronghold since 1885. Firstly, it was monolithically Liberal, and then, after a period of confusion in the Twenties and Thirties, almost as solid for Labour up till 1979. Even in 1931, Labour won no fewer than 18 out of…

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YouGov shows the Tory lead is being sustained

YouGov shows the Tory lead is being sustained

..and a boost for Huhne in his bid for the Lib Dem leadership After the longest period without a national voting intention poll since August 2006 there’s the regular survey from the YouGov panel in the Daily Telegraph this morning which shows no change on the last poll from the firm almost two weeks ago. The headline figures are CON 41% (nc): LAB 38% (nc): LD 11% (nc) What we don’t have from YouGov is any adjustment for likelihood to…

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Would Gord have benefited from a proper contest?

Would Gord have benefited from a proper contest?

Does a leadership election hone up the candidates’ campaigning skills? Just looking back at how the Lib Dem hopefuls, Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne, performed on Sunday’s Andrew Marr show it struck me what a good training ground for a general election running for the leader of your party is. The normal political dialogue outside election times does not provide the opportunities for the kind of exposure and probing that a leadership election demands and those who have been through…

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Who’ll come out of this row best?

Who’ll come out of this row best?

Will a U-turn help Gord or not? An issue on which the Lib Dems have been making the running, the plan to take away 5% of school budget surpluses, was used by David Cameron at PMQs yesterday for his first line of attack against Gordon Brown. The Tory leader said that it was “unjust, an ill-conceived idea” which undermines governors’ authority. This morning the Independent carries a report, part of which is reproduced above, that the Prime Minister is planning…

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Jack will be loving this

Jack will be loving this

But does the Guardian know who he is? The Jack W mystery is now being featured on the Guardian web-site. What a tribute to him and his role here over the past three years. I would love to share the secret with everybody but I did make a promise to Jack. Mike Smithson