Is there scope for exploiting Tory splits on the EU? This lunchtime we’ll see the third PMQ clash between Brown and Cameron since the election plan was ditched. Dave won the first encounter in October emphatically and most observers gave it to him last week on points. What will happen today? Could this be the moment that Gord hits back? Could he start to turn the EU referendum argument back against the Tory leader by pointing to the demands from…
The changing view of punters since May 2005 The chart shows the changing fortunes of the two main parties since last time on the main general general election market – who will win most seats. The betting prices are represented as an implied probability rather than the actual odds because it shows trends better. This is not about whether the Tories or Labour win an absolute majority but on which of them finishes up with the most seats. This is…
Could there be a repeat of the 2006 private polling farce? Word has reached me that there is a possibility that the internet pollster, YouGov might be commissioned to carry out a survey of Lib Dem members on the Clegg-Huhne contest. Although previous YouGov surveys of Lib Dem and Labour members have achieved nothing like the accuracy of the firm’s Tory leadership polls they could provide a reasonable pointer to those planning to bet. Would they show that Clegg is…
Who’ll be up and who’ll be down in the next polling round? In the first 13 days of October polls there were nine separate national polls showing general election voting intentions. In the second 13 days it looks as if we will have had none and the signs are that there won’t be anything until the weekend at the earliest. Part of the problem is that many newspapers spent up their polling budgets in that intense period as all the…
Does that sound like a value bet? With the pressure on Gord to call a referendum the EU Treaty likely to intensify this week the bookmaker, Victor Chandler, is now accepting bets on whether or not he will go back on his refusal. The firm have priced up a referendum happening before the end of next year at 9/2. It is 1/8 that the UK ratifies the treaty without it being put to a public vote. My guess is that…
Will this put the election retreat back on the agenda? The main lead in the Guardian this morning confirms how serious Labour was about going to the country in late October or early November and could provide further ammunition for the Tories as they seek to attack Brown. For according to the paper “nearly a million pounds” was spent in the run-up compared with just £200,000 by the Tories. The report notes that three million letters had been printed and…
Is his former special advisor out of control? After all the controversy over the role of schools secretary, Ed Balls in hyping up the early election date speculation there’s an intriguing account of some of the goings on between Number 10 and Number 11 during the final year of Tony Blair. It comes in a serialisation of a new biography of Blair by Dr Anthony Seldon the first part of which is published in the Sir Paul Dacre’s “Mail on…
Is party funding about to become the next battle-ground? This is Michael Ashcroft who in this year’s Sunday Times Rich List was placed in position 87 with an estimated wealth of £800m. He’s a major donor to the Tory party and before the 2005 general election, as was reported here, he hand-picked a group of Tory candidates in marginal constituencies and then was responsible for providing extra attention and funding to help them with their campaigns. This morning he is…