..and a boost for Huhne in his bid for the Lib Dem leadership
After the longest period without a national voting intention poll since August 2006 there’s the regular survey from the YouGov panel in the Daily Telegraph this morning which shows no change on the last poll from the firm almost two weeks ago. The headline figures are CON 41% (nc): LAB 38% (nc): LD 11% (nc)
What we don’t have from YouGov is any adjustment for likelihood to vote. In the last poll this question was asked and the three point Tory margin became nine points amongst “those certain to vote”. We’ll have to wait until the detailed data is published to see if that element was examined.
So both main parties will probably be satisfied with the status quo – the Tories will be relieved that the dramatic changes of early October remain and Labour won’t be too unhappy at this level.
In the Lib Dem race 16% of party supporters said Chris Huhne would do the better job improving the party’s fortunes compared with 14% for the odds on betting favourite, Nick Clegg. This is very good news for the man who ran against Ming last time and might be an indication that members are not as strongly for Clegg as the betting suggests. Clearly neither contender has established much public recognition. Amongst all in the survey Clegg led Huhne by 10% to 5%.
Amongst the list of non-voting questions there’s been a big move to Cameron. Brown’s net approval rating has moved from plus 11 last month to minus 14. Cameron has gone from minus 27 in September to plus 4% in this latest poll.
The big damage to Brown has come in his reputation for “being decisive”. In May he had a 52-17% positive score on the question – this week that is down to a 42-37% negative.
Overall there is not a lot here that will affect the general election betting markets. In the Lib Dem leadership betting the small lead that Huhne has over Clegg amongst party supporters will be seen by his campaign as a big boost. I’ve put a bit on Huhne at 3.1/1 – if other surveys show a similar level trend then this price will probably tighten.