A special note from Peter the Punter

A special note from Peter the Punter

Tote ‘Ten To Follow’ Competition – A Politicalbetting.com Entry? The Tote’s popular Ten to Follow competition for the jumps season kicks off shortly. As well as being a decent value bet, it provides lots of fun throughout the season and attracts much support from serious and occasional punters alike. The general idea is that you pick out ten horses from the Tote’s list and they score points as and when they succeed in their races during the season. Entry is…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Focus on Wales “Punter” has asked me to comment on the Welsh constituencies on several occasions. As there are 40 Welsh constituencies, then my comments on the likely outcome at the next election must be brief. Wales has been a left-wing stronghold since 1885. Firstly, it was monolithically Liberal, and then, after a period of confusion in the Twenties and Thirties, almost as solid for Labour up till 1979. Even in 1931, Labour won no fewer than 18 out of…

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YouGov shows the Tory lead is being sustained

YouGov shows the Tory lead is being sustained

..and a boost for Huhne in his bid for the Lib Dem leadership After the longest period without a national voting intention poll since August 2006 there’s the regular survey from the YouGov panel in the Daily Telegraph this morning which shows no change on the last poll from the firm almost two weeks ago. The headline figures are CON 41% (nc): LAB 38% (nc): LD 11% (nc) What we don’t have from YouGov is any adjustment for likelihood to…

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Would Gord have benefited from a proper contest?

Would Gord have benefited from a proper contest?

Does a leadership election hone up the candidates’ campaigning skills? Just looking back at how the Lib Dem hopefuls, Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne, performed on Sunday’s Andrew Marr show it struck me what a good training ground for a general election running for the leader of your party is. The normal political dialogue outside election times does not provide the opportunities for the kind of exposure and probing that a leadership election demands and those who have been through…

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Who’ll come out of this row best?

Who’ll come out of this row best?

Will a U-turn help Gord or not? An issue on which the Lib Dems have been making the running, the plan to take away 5% of school budget surpluses, was used by David Cameron at PMQs yesterday for his first line of attack against Gordon Brown. The Tory leader said that it was “unjust, an ill-conceived idea” which undermines governors’ authority. This morning the Independent carries a report, part of which is reproduced above, that the Prime Minister is planning…

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Jack will be loving this

Jack will be loving this

But does the Guardian know who he is? The Jack W mystery is now being featured on the Guardian web-site. What a tribute to him and his role here over the past three years. I would love to share the secret with everybody but I did make a promise to Jack. Mike Smithson

Will we see the “big clunking fist” today?

Will we see the “big clunking fist” today?

Is there scope for exploiting Tory splits on the EU? This lunchtime we’ll see the third PMQ clash between Brown and Cameron since the election plan was ditched. Dave won the first encounter in October emphatically and most observers gave it to him last week on points. What will happen today? Could this be the moment that Gord hits back? Could he start to turn the EU referendum argument back against the Tory leader by pointing to the demands from…

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Are the Tories set to become favourites again?

Are the Tories set to become favourites again?

The changing view of punters since May 2005 The chart shows the changing fortunes of the two main parties since last time on the main general general election market – who will win most seats. The betting prices are represented as an implied probability rather than the actual odds because it shows trends better. This is not about whether the Tories or Labour win an absolute majority but on which of them finishes up with the most seats. This is…

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