It’s not just been LDs moving to the Tories? Whenever a new poll comes out now the standard explanation from Labour observers is to observe that much of the change that has seen the Tories move above a 40% share in six consecutive surveys has been the result of Lib Dems switching. Once a replacement for Ming is in place, it is argued, then the Tories will decline. We saw that overnight with the Independent‘s ComRes survey that had with…
..and a boost for the Lib Dems According to Ben Brogan of the Daily Mail tomorrow’s ComRes poll in the Independent will give the Tories an 8% lead. The shares, with changes on last month, are reported to be CON 41% (+7): LAB 33% (-3): LD 16% (nc) ComRes operates like Populus and ICM and weights by both past vote and certainty to vote. Its past vote formula has been less favourable to Labour than the other two. These figures…
How can Cameron appeal to two audiences at the same time? Whenever pollsters ask about the main issue that concerns voters then immigration invariably comes top of the list. In the latest Ipsos-Mori poll 41% of those interviewed said, unprompted, that “race relations/immigration/immigrants” was amongst their top concerns. Politicians of all parties know this and are ultra-careful when they move into this policy area – but peddling what appears to be a highly populist anti-immigrant line can have its own…
How should Labour respond to the Rifkind plan? Reproduced above is part of the coverage that the Daily Mail is giving this morning to the plans that are emerging over what the Tories will do about Scottish devolution and the so called “West Lothian Question”. Clearly the growing disparity between public services north and south of the border, which is being skilfully exploited by Scotland’s First Minister, Alex Salmond, is not going to go away. Free prescriptions, free home care…
Australia Decides 2007 – Part 1 Since John Howard asked the Governor-General for an election on Saturday 24 November, we have seen the first two weeks of the 2007 Australian election campaign, and in short – Rudd is retaining his substantial lead in the polls, and he has been the net “winner” of the campaign to date. Since the start of the 6 week campaign, John Howard and Kevin Rudd have released their tax policies (both proposing substantial cuts), and…
Could the “no” to the Trident replacement help him and his party? After a period when the main complaint about the Lib Dem leadership race was that both contenders appeared the same the man who came second last time, Chris Huhne, has put a new issue on the table – should Britain spend the billions on replacing Trident and maintaining its independent nuclear deterrent? In an interview with the Observer Huhne declared it would be ‘ridiculous’ to spend up to…
Are we entering the era of Boat Race politics? The massive monthly face-to-face survey by Ipsos-Mori is out in the Observer this morning and shows that Labour, on 41% have just pipped ahead of the Tories on 40%. The actual figures with comparisons on a telephone survey from a sample of half the size from the same pollster a fortnight ago are CON 40%(-1): LAB 41%(+3): LD 13%(+2). Looking at today’s figures with the last directly comparable poll, Ipsos-Mori’s September…
What’s behind the Lib Dem price rally? If you feed the latest figures from the main pollsters that have reported since the Tory conference into the Anthony Wells commons seat calculator the highest number that you get for the Lib Dems is 21 MPs from the Populus survey three weeks ago. The latest ICM poll makes it 18 seats with both YouGov and Ipsos-Mori showing a bare 11 seat total. Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus site is even worse with his…