New buy levels put Cameron only 17/18 seats short In the high risk high reward arena of commons seats spread betting there’s been a significant move to the Tories in the aftermath of the Northern Rock statement and the ongoing stock market troubles. When this was last covered here at the end of last week the highest Tory buy level was 304 seats – 21 short of an overall majority. In the past 24 hours there’ve been big moves to…
Are they both more popular outside their parties than within? Just reading what some US right wing commentators are saying about John McCain it struck me that he is his party’s Ken Clarke. Both McCain and Clarke have sought and failed to be party leader/presidential nominee in the past Both McCain and Clarke have been seen by outsider observers as being highly electable Both McCain and Clarke are probably more popular outside their parties than within Both McCain and Clarke…
For those who find the battle between Clinton and Obama absolutely compelling this six minute extract from last night’s debate before a black audience in South Carolina is a must view. The black senator has clearly decided to raise the ante – the question is whether it will do him any good or not. The Clintons are a formidable pair. In the betting the Hillary price has continued to tighten and now stands at 0.45/1 for the nomination. Bear in…
Who’ll come out best when there is so much uncertainty? After a day which saw the Northern Rock bailout plan, the start of the EU treaty process in the Commons and the Channel 4 programme on Ken’s record as Mayor these are the headlines in the “serious” papers this morning. It’s hard to focus on a specific political theme because, as Simon Hoggart in the Guardian puts is “..Outside in the real world the stock market was melting down..” If…
What will the impact of NR be on the next general election? So there we have it. The Darling-Brown plan to solve the Northern Rock crisis without them, on the face of it at least, having to resort to nationalisation. But a lot of tax-payer’s money is still at stake and Vince Cable’s point that ministers have gone for a private sector solution without the private sector risking any money certainly hit home in the commons a short time ago….
Is winning a third term starting to look doubtful? If you want proof that May’s fight for the London Mayoralty might not be the foregone conclusion that the betting markets currently suggest then do what I did last night – go to Google News and input the words “Ken Livingstone”. The top few results are featured in the screen shot above – and just looking down the list you can see that he might be in some trouble. What’s particularly…
How trading can reduce your betting exposure These are my current positions on Betfair’s Democratic nominee market and what, for me at least, is the best form of gambling, Spreadfair’s spread betting market. With the latter you can go in and out trading and, if you get it right, pocketing your profits even though the final outcomes might be nearly a year off. On Betfair I have now switched so that I come out a winner whatever the outcome without…
How the primaries have changed the betting The above charts show the dramatic betting price changes, expressed as implied probabilities, that we have seen in the Republican and Democratic nomination races in the past month as we have gone through the first phase of the primary and caucus process. The big change overnight has been in the GOP contest where for the first time we are getting some real clarity. It’s hard to see how Mike Huckabee can now get…