Could the Lib Dems Replace Labour? An electoral system based on First Past the Post forces voters to choose between two alternatives. Constituencies that are three (or even four) way marginals rarely remain in that position for very long. Sooner or later, they revert to a two way contest. Sometimes, the party that originally held the seat will be relegated to a distant third place. What is true at constituency level has historically been true at national level. There is…
Can the pollster be accused of “persistently understating” his ratings? With the row over Ken Livingstone’s custodianship of the London mayoralty continuing unabated the election on May 1st that will determine his future looks set to be the biggest UK political betting bonanza since the 2005 general election. It has all the ingredients that make it attractive to punters – high profile contenders who everybody knows by their first names; passionate feelings across the political spectrum about the current incumbent…
Betfair now match £1m on the Democratic battle? With just one day’s campaigning to go before the crucial South Carolina Democratic primary both of the leading contenders, Clinton and Obama, have issued new radio ads in the increasingly angry war of words between the two camps. The impact of such advertising is not usually to make converts but to reinforce your own side to get them to vote. Obama needs a big victory on Saturday to stay in this race….
Is this worth betting on? William Hill are offering odds of 5/1 that Peter Hain will be back in the Cabinet by the end of 2008, and 3/1 that he will return there by the end of 2009. ‘Mr Hain was a 7/1 shot to be out of the Cabinet by the end of this January and 2/1 to be the first Cabinet Minister to lose his position – so many political punters are celebrating his departure’ said Hill’s spokesman…
Within the past few minutes we have had the news that Peter Hain has resigned. The move follows an announcement by the Electoral Commission announced that it had referred the issue of undeclared donations to his deputy leadership campaign to the police. The question now is what will be the political impact? This had also been a betting market – at one stage you could have got 7-1 that he would be out this month. Mike Smithson
Could such an approach backfire on Cameron? Yesterday’s characterisation by David Cameron of the Prime Minster as being “that strange man in Downing Street” has prompted a number of Labour-leaning bloggers, including Paul Linford, to suggest that this is part of a Tory plan. This is what Linford wrote:“it’s clear….that portraying his opponent as somehow not one of us is a key part of the Tory leader’s political strategy..Mr Cameron clearly wants to portray himself as This Charming Man, and…
The above are the mid afternoon (1545 GMT) prices on the races for the Democratic and the Republican nominees for this November’s US Presidential election. The picture is getting much clearer as we move into the next crucial phase of state primaries. On Saturday 26 January it’s the South Carolina Democratic Primary and the following Tuesday there will be the crucial Republican and the Florida Democratic primaries. Once all those have been completed we should have an even firmer view…
Do PMQs really turn the voters off? According to a report in the Independent yesterday Gordon Brown is telling friends that the public is being increasingly repelled by PMQs and that the Commons exchanges are now of little use in discussing the issues of the day. He’s reported as saying that “nothing prepares you” for the ferocity of a packed chamber in full cry” and that the weekly event is worse than it has ever been I’m not so sure….