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Is this now a clash of the Democratic Dynasties?

28/1/2008 Mike Smithson

How will Kennedy’s endorsement affect the race? The excellent US Politico site is reporting that a major battle has been going on between the Obama and Clinton camps over plans by Ted Kennedy to appear on a platform with Barack Obama today and give his blessing to the Illinois senator in the fight for the Democratic nomination. The importance of the move can be measured by the efforts that the Clinton campaign has made to try to stop Kennedy making…

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Friday’s party pictures….by Roger

27/1/2008 Mike Smithson

Thanks to the excellent efforts of Peter the Punter (Peter Smith) and Augustus Carp (David Langshaw) the fourth site party was held on Friday night. Ladbrokes helped with some sponsorship to keep the costs down. It would be great if in the comments thread those who were there could identify some of those in the pictures. I am in the top right shot with the William Hague haircut. This is a group shot. Mike Smithson

Should your money be on the man with money?

27/1/2008 Mike Smithson

Will it be the wealthiest contender who gets the GOP prize? After Florida on Tuesday the whole nature of the battle for the Democratic and Republican nominations changes and, more than at any stage so far, the importance of money to fund a campaign becomes critical. For a week on Tuesday there will be primaries in states that make up nearly half the population of the US and it’s going to be very hard to make a big impact across…

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South Carolina continuation thread….

27/1/2008 Mike Smithson

Will Bill and Hillary be happy after Obama’s big win? Please continue the discussion here. Latest betting on the Democratic nomination is here. What is interesting tonight is the sheer scale of Obama’s victory which totally dwarfs what the polls were suggesting. UPDATE – 0300: With a likely margin of 27-28% the polls were further out here than they were in New Hampshire. It’s very easy to get carried away by the moment and certainly there has been a big…

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Who’ll come out of South Carolina on top?

26/1/2008 Editor

Will Obama get the breadth of support that he needs? With the polling stations in South Carolina due to close at 7pm ET (0000 GMT) there is not long to wait for the next chapter in the extraordinary drama of this year’s bitter contest for the Democratic nomination. For Obama tonight is pretty crucial. Not only does he need to carry the state with an emphatic margin he needs to show as well that his support is more broadly based…

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Will this sort of “push polling” happen in the UK?

26/1/2008 Mike Smithson

How an automated canvas is made to sound like a poll This week the excellent Pollster.com site in the US carried this video of what was purported to be a survey from a pollster but was probably what is known as “push polling”. This is defined by Wikipedia as “…a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large…

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Are the good times returning for Gordon?

26/1/2008 Mike Smithson

Will today’s polls bring a smile back to his face? Following the good news for Labour in last night’s YouGov poll on the London mayoralty there’s a further boost for the party in new national voting intention surveys from YouGov and ICM this morning. And one of them has Labour’s deficit down to just two per cent. The latter finding is in the monthly ICM survey for the Guardian which has, with comparisons on the last poll from the firm…

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Boost for Ken in new YouGov poll

25/1/2008 Mike Smithson

YouGov puts him 4% ahead After one of his most controversial weeks since becoming Mayor in 2000 there’s a boost tonight for Ken Livingstone in his bid to secure a third term in the most powerful directly elected office in the UK. A Yougov survey for ITV London found – with changes on its last poll a month ago – Ken 44% (-1): Boris 40% (-4): Paddick LD 8% (nc) The poll detail is not yet available so it’s hard…

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