How trading can reduce your betting exposure
These are my current positions on Betfair’s Democratic nominee market and what, for me at least, is the best form of gambling, Spreadfair’s spread betting market. With the latter you can go in and out trading and, if you get it right, pocketing your profits even though the final outcomes might be nearly a year off.
On Betfair I have now switched so that I come out a winner whatever the outcome without any further risk. All the stake money I had to put up has now been withdrawn and the figures in the green show what I make depending on who gets it. I had had a bigger Obama position which has now been reversed so that I make most on Hillary.
To the right is my Spreadfair betting where 25 points are allocated to the eventual winner of the race in November and 10 points to the runner up. So if Hillary become president I make (25 minus my buy level of 11.9) multiplied by my stake of Â£40 a unit.
If she comes in second place through getting the nomination but then losing in November I stand to be down 1.9 (the difference between my buy level and 10 points) multiplied by Â£40. If she does not get the nomination I will lose 11.9 multiplied by Â£40.
I went into last night with biggish Obama and Huckabee positions which I closed down as the results were coming in and it became clear that Hillary was winning in Nevada and Huckabee was heading for the runner-up slot in South Carolina. Fortunately I got out of Obama at higher levels than I had bought at and I have made an overall profit of Â£343 on him.
I wasn’t so lucky with Huckabee and my betting on him has produced realised losses of Â£43.
My strong preference is for the Spreadfair approach not the least because I have a credit account and have not had to put up any money upfront to make my bets.