Are McCain and Clinton worthy odds-on favourites?

Are McCain and Clinton worthy odds-on favourites?

How the primaries have changed the betting The above charts show the dramatic betting price changes, expressed as implied probabilities, that we have seen in the Republican and Democratic nomination races in the past month as we have gone through the first phase of the primary and caucus process. The big change overnight has been in the GOP contest where for the first time we are getting some real clarity. It’s hard to see how Mike Huckabee can now get…

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So who will be our third winner tonight?

So who will be our third winner tonight?

How will Nevada impact on the nomination betting? A massive win in Nevada for Mitt Romney, the scale of which was not predicted by the polls, has seen his price for the GOP nomination tighten to 3.1/1 putting him in the second favourite slot behind John McCain. The RCP polling average was suggesting that the race would be much tighter and, indeed, one survey this week had the senior Senator from the neighbouring state of Arizona, John McCain, in the…

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My first-hand experience of the power of Hillary

My first-hand experience of the power of Hillary

What happened when the First Lady snapped at the President It is almost exactly ten years ago that I had the most memorable experience of my life when, as part of a small party from Cambridge University, I visited Bill and Hillary in the Oval Office. Through the University’s New York director, John McCaffrey, the President had agreed to host a lecture at the White House by Professor Stephen Hawking and we were planing to use the event to get…

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Will it be any clearer after tonight?

Will it be any clearer after tonight?

Yesterday the Guardian asked me to give my assessment of today’s crucial elections in Nevada and South Carolina – this is what I wrote. The Republican Race: There are two elections – the Caucuses in Nevada and the primary in South Carolina. There has been little interest in the former and the assumption on the betting markets is that this is sewn up for the Michigan winner, Mitt Romney, who has had reasonable leads in two of the last three…

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A week to go…and some other items

A week to go…and some other items

All those who enjoying coming to the site, and not just those who post, will be most welcome at the fourth PBC party a week tonight. Once again it will be held at the National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. The date – Friday 25th January 2008, from 6pm until about 9.30pm, or when thrown out if sooner. There will be a cash bar and a £5 entry charge, payable on the door, as a contribution towards sandwiches…

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Can the Tories break the 300 seat ceiling?

Can the Tories break the 300 seat ceiling?

The Commons seat spreads – where the serious punters go Reproduced above are this morning’s commons seats spreads from Sporting Index where you bet on how many seats the main parties are going to get at the next election. They show the Conservatives at almost their highest ever since the general election. There has only been one previous period, in late November, when the mid-point (the average of the BUY and SELL levels) has risen about the 300 mark. As…

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Are the Clintons getting rattled?

Are the Clintons getting rattled?

How will Bill’s response help Hillary? This TV extract which has been near the top of the bulletins on ABC News gives a good indication of how the Clintons are seeing the battle with Obama as they move into their next big test – Saturday’s Nevada caucuses. The row follows a legal move to change the arrangements for Las Vegas casino workers following an agreement last year that they should be able to partake in the process at their places…

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