The delegate totals might be a problem – but the narrative’s changed On Monday night it was suggested here that it was “being premature” to write Hillary’s political obituary because the numbers coming from the latest polls suggested that there had been a significant shift away from Obama. Late polling changes like that on the eve of an election are usually significant and so it has been with Super Tuesday 2. As I write the Texas results are not yet…
A typically relaxed PtP awaits news from Ohio & Texas Firstly, very special thanks to Harry for hosting us tonight at Elite – we have now all been in position at our trading desks since about 9pm. The biggest profit so far has been on a greyhound race at Hall Green (thanks to an insider’s tip!) although I’m sure that will change! We are all tuned to CNN and Fox watching events unfold and this has been an excellent “dry-run”…
But could the mass of early voting underpin Obama? With less than two hours to go before the polls closed in the first of the four key primaries tonight the latest Gallup tracking poll suggests that the momentum might be moving back to Hillary. A big issue though, particularly in Texas, is how the hundreds of thousands of people who took part in the early voting will have gone. Could this be Obama’s secret weapon tonight? We will see. All…
Mayoral betting is here
Would a $60m February Obama total trump any victories today? One thing that we have not heard from the Obama campaign yet is how much money was raised in February and there’s speculation that this is being put on hold just in case Hillary is seen to have re-gained the momentum in today’s primaries. Her campaign has announced that she raised $35m during the month – a move that just brought a statement from Camp Obama that they had exceeded…
Was the LD survey designed to give the result the leadership wanted? My general suspicion of ALL privately commissioned polls has been reinforced by two surveys in the past 24 hours which relate to the big vote in the Commons tomorrow over whether there should be a referendum on the Lisbon treaty. This is an issue where the Lib Dem group of MPs could be decisive and the polls relate directly to them. One commissioned by the party from MORI…
Could Texas and Ohio dramatically change the narrative? After an extraordinary and intensive onslaught on Barack Obama on a wide range of fronts there’s just an indication tonight that those who’ve been preparing Hillary’s political obituaries might have to put their drafts on hold. For when a range of polls move in the same direction in the final hours before an election then it’s normally an indication that something might be happening. And that’s been the news today on the…
Well it made me laugh! Mike Smithson