Is Berlusconi set for a third term in Italy?

Is Berlusconi set for a third term in Italy?

“Il Cavaliere” down to 1.3 on Betfair – can Veltroni stop him? Double Carpet looks at Italian politics ahead of the election Italy goes to the polls next Sunday and Monday, and following hot on the heels of the Spanish election, it provides a good “compare and contrast”. Since 1983 there have been only three Prime Ministers in Spain (Gonzalez, Aznar, Zapatero), and indeed only three French Presidents, three German Chancellors, and four occupants each in Downing Street and the…

Read More Read More

Have the LDs been hurt by Clegg’s GQ admission?

Have the LDs been hurt by Clegg’s GQ admission?

Was this behind the worst ICM ratings for three months? This morning’s ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph is good news for the Conservatives, good news for Labour but bad news for the Lib Dems. These are the shares with comparisons on the last ICM survey just a fortnight ago – CON 43%(+1): LAB 32%(+3): LD 18%(-3). The comparisons in the previous post were with the last ICM survey in the paper in early January. The pollster’s methodology is usually…

Read More Read More

Conservatives ahead by 11 with ICM

Conservatives ahead by 11 with ICM

Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority? Con 43 (+6), Lab 32 (nc), Lib Dem 18 (-3) A poll by ICM in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, up six since the previous poll in January. The Telegraph notes that such a result could give a 40-seat majority for Cameron under FPTP, but under a putative AV-style system this would be reduced to 325 MPs. On the issue of economic competence, Brown/Darling and Cameron/Osborne…

Read More Read More

YouGov: SNP touch 40% in Scotland

YouGov: SNP touch 40% in Scotland

..and two-thirds want an early referendum on independence? A YouGov poll carried out during the week north of the border has found a big boost for the SNP and suggests a possible problem for Labour in retaining seats in the country at the next general election. Like most Scottish polls it is in three parts:- Westminster General Election with changes on May 2005. SNP 31% (+13): Lab 35% (-5): Con: 17% (+1): Lib: 12% (-11): Oth: 4% Scottish Parliament constituency…

Read More Read More

Will Indiana Prove To Be Decisive?

Will Indiana Prove To Be Decisive?

Morus looks ahead to the Hoosier state as the Democrat endgame approaches Whilst all eyes are on Pennsylvania on the 22nd April, there are a number of primaries being held within a couple of weeks of that contest which could still yet have an impact on Clinton’s pending decision to fight or concede. Although Obama has recently drawn very close in the PA polls, it would be a massive surprise for Clinton to lose this primary, although the odds suggest…

Read More Read More

Peter the Punter’s take on…

Peter the Punter’s take on…

The Grand National 2008 One popular misconception about this race is that it’s a lottery which serious punters would swerve. In fact, until about ten years ago it was one of the easiest races in which to find value bets and was therefore eagerly anticipated by the greedy hordes of professional backers. This all changed when Senior Handicapper, Phil Smith (no relation), started taking a radical view of the weights allocated to each horse. In essence, he started to show…

Read More Read More

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Where London Will be Won and Lost One of the striking features of the London Mayoral election of 2004 was just how strongly Ken Livingstone performed in prosperous parts of the Capital, many of which are strongly Conservative in local elections. Boroughs like Croydon, (where the Conservatives had a 9% lead over Labour in the local elections of 2002), Harrow (where they had a 7% lead), Redbridge and Richmond (both gained by the Conservatives in 2002) and most surprising of…

Read More Read More

Does the ICM data suggest backing Boris again?

Does the ICM data suggest backing Boris again?

Would he have had a bigger lead with a different turnout approach? With the publication of two polls showing very different pictures of the UK’s biggest political betting event for years there’s going to be even more scrutiny of how the figures are produced. There are matters in relation to the YouGov approach that I have written to Peter Kellner about that I hope to discuss in the next few days In the meantime we now have the detailed data…

Read More Read More