Conservatives ahead by 11 with ICM

Conservatives ahead by 11 with ICM

    Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority?
    Con 43 (+6), Lab 32 (nc), Lib Dem 18 (-3)

A poll by ICM in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, up six since the previous poll in January. The Telegraph notes that such a result could give a 40-seat majority for Cameron under FPTP, but under a putative AV-style system this would be reduced to 325 MPs.

On the issue of economic competence, Brown/Darling and Cameron/Osborne are neck and neck, a swing of 3.5% to the Tories since January – 59% of respondents said they have reined in spending over the last year due to the credit crunch.

A couple of questions then:

  • Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority? (2.54 on Betfair – I think a 2010 election at 1.81 and Tories most seats at 1.67 are very good value.) Prices are here.
  • How likely is it that Labour will change the voting system before the next election? Is what we’ve heard so far simply kite-flying, or is there a real possibility of it happening?
  • Final note from the Guest Editor

    Just to say special thanks to Sean Fear, PtP and Morus for their contributions this week, and of course Mike who has produced a large number of articles despite being on holiday. Many thanks to all of you for your comments, and as mentioned before, I will be producing a regular Sunday evening slot on international politics.

    To John O, AH Matlock, Tyson, and other interested parties – the article on Italy will be out around 5pm tomorrow. I’ve written the piece but Andrea has kindly “peer-reviewed” it and I have incorporated his comments – and he hopes to be doing a follow-up article after the elections.

    Cheers and all the very best,

    Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

    Guest Editor

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