A trade union sponsored poll out this morning from Ipsos-MORI on the London Mayoralty put Ken Livingstone in the lead and add further to the polling confusion over the race. Amongst first choices the split amongst those “certain to vote” is JOHNSON 40%: LIVINGSTONE 41%: PADDICK 10% 14%. This is very similar to a survey by the pollster in February which had been commissioned by the Labour party. If you include all those naming a choice Ken had an 8%…
So is it a workable Tory majority or a hung parliament? Since the budget there have been eight general election opinion polls – three from ICM, two from YouGov and one each from the other pollsters that do regular monthly surveys – MORI, ComRes and Populus. What’s interesting is that the big Tory surge that’s both affecting the betting markets and the political climate generally has been based primarily on two pollsters, ICM and YouGov – the firms, incidentally, that…
Will tonight’s Newsnight debate change anything? The first televised debate in the London Mayoral contest takes place on Newsnight on BBC2 later tonight and could be a significant occasion – especially as the questions will be put by Jeremy Paxman. The veteran Newsnight host has become something of a legend and all three of the contenders can expect a tough time from him and their fellow candidates. This could be quite an occasion and there’s always the possibility that something…
Can it do for Stephan what 18 Doughty Street didn’t? Stephan Shakespeare, the former campaign manager for Jeffrey Archer, who went on to found YouGov has a launched a new venture this week, PoliticsHome.com. It’s a website totally devoted to politics and brings together links, blogs, and videos in a form that, in Stephan’s words, will make it “the “Bloomberg of politics†covering political power as seriously as Bloomberg did financial clout.” There’s a lot of money going into the…
Why you cannot make comparisons with the run up to 1997 The above is reproduced from Anthony Wells’s excellent UK Polling Report site and shows the polls in the final month before the 1997 general election which Labour won with a margin of 13%. Just compare the above figures with the final shares of CON 31.4%: LAB 44.4%: LD 17.2% I refer back to this because time and time again you will read or hear commentators and politicians say that…
The April monthly survey by Populus for the Times is being published this evening and first indications are that it’s very bad for Gordon. The headline is already up on the Times web-site and reads “Economic confidence falters as Labour plunges”. UPDATE: The shares are now available and show CON 39% (+2): LAB 33%(-1 ): LD 17%(-2) This has not quite lived up to it billing and while a six point margin should put the Tories ahead on seats it…
After all the argument about the weightings there’s a new YouGov poll out this morning that puts Boris even further ahead. The shares are with changes on the last poll a week ago: JOHNSON 49% (+2): LIVINGSTONE 36% (-1): PADDICK 10% (nc) This is a huge margin and is in sharp contrast to the recent ICM poll which had, after second choices were taken into account, a Boris lead of just 2%. The gap between the pollsters is unprecedented though…
Peter Kellner admits “error” in the pollster’s weighting system? Last week while I was on holiday in France Adam Boulton’s blog carried a piece suggesting that YouGov’s London samples included too many older voters, who traditionally are more inclined to vote Conservative. He suggested that if the weightings had been in line with official population statistics then Boris would have had a lead of 6% – not the 10% found in the latest survey. So is there something in the…