After all the argument about the weightings there’s a new YouGov poll out this morning that puts Boris even further ahead. The shares are with changes on the last poll a week ago: JOHNSON 49% (+2): LIVINGSTONE 36% (-1): PADDICK 10% (nc)

This is a huge margin and is in sharp contrast to the recent ICM poll which had, after second choices were taken into account, a Boris lead of just 2%.

The gap between the pollsters is unprecedented though it should be said that the ICM fieldwork took place at the end of a school holiday period which can skew findings.

One factor that might be working in Boris’s favour is that the polls are showing that he is the likely winner. It’s been suggested that four years ago many Tory supporters refrained from voting because they could not see the point.

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Mike Smithson