Is this a delayed reaction to the MORI and MRUK polls? Yesterday morning I expressed surprise that the MORI poll had had so little impact on the mayoral betting markets. Overnight Saturday we had the MRUK survey, also showing Ken with a narrow lead, and at first the markets seemed to take it in their stride. But this evening there has been a sharp move from Boris to Ken and it appears possible that the incumbent could find himself the…
So will it be Ken or Boris? – the PBC London Mayor Competition Just four days until London goes to the polls – who do you think will be the new Mayor and how will the various candidates fare? You will be asked to predict the first preference shares for Ken, Boris, and Brian, plus the BNP, Greens, Left List, and UKIP, and then the final vote share for your predicted overall winner. (Final vote share is winner’s total votes…
The information over-load continues With Thursday’s London Mayoral election seemingly on a knife-edge every little scrap of information could be helpful to those who are having a punt. The Sunday Times’s pollster, MRUK, is being particularly helpful and their Ivor Knox has just emailed me some information that I thought I ought to pass on. Before applying the turnout filter the first preference split had Ken leading by 45% to 42% After applying the filter which just to include those…
New pollster MRUK has Ken just 1% ahead With just five days to go before the London elections the new pollster, MRUK, has produced for the Sunday Times what we assume is its final survey and it shows the following first preference split with changes on last week – JOHNSON 43%(-1): LIVINGSTONE 44%(-1): PADDICK 9%(nc). After second preferences MRUK make it 51% to 49% for Ken. So the Ken first preference figure is dramatically up on the 36.9% that he…
A third poll has Labour slipping back Just six days after the publication of the Guardian’s April poll showing a big drop in the Tory lead to 5% there another survey from pollster out tonight which has a different picture. The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph reports the following shares with comparisons on the earlier survey: CON 39% (nc): LAB 29% (-5): LD 20% (+1) So the big drop off in the Labour share has not moved to the…
Will there be more gloom for Gordon – but what about Ken? There are a number of key polls expected in the tomorrow’s Sunday papers. One of them – MORI for the Observer – was spotted by an eagle-eyed PB contributor last night and we got news of the Tory 9% lead at least a day ahead of anybody else. There’s also going to be a full ICM national voting intention survey in the Sunday Telegraph – and already there…
…and a 60% turnout is projected Due to a series of cock-ups details of the latest trade union-funded poll by Ipsos-MORI have been taken off the pollster’s website but they were on long enough to pick up some key information. Ken’s first preference share projection was put at 41% which is way ahead of the 36.9% he got four years ago and the 39% that he achieved when he first swept into power in 2000. So for every SEVEN Londoners…
Are we seeing the Observer’s poll two days early? After the big boost for the Tories in this morning’s YouGov poll there’s another national survey out which shows a growing Conservative lead. The MORI Monitor for April has been published on the firm’s website, apparently by mistake, and shows the following shares with the changes on March: CON 40% (nc): LAB 31% (-4): LD 19% (+1). My understanding was that this poll was for the Observer on Sunday. The fieldwork…