The Saturday night polling thread

The Saturday night polling thread


    Will there be more gloom for Gordon – but what about Ken?

There are a number of key polls expected in the tomorrow’s Sunday papers. One of them – MORI for the Observer – was spotted by an eagle-eyed PB contributor last night and we got news of the Tory 9% lead at least a day ahead of anybody else.

There’s also going to be a full ICM national voting intention survey in the Sunday Telegraph – and already there are hints that this will show a bigger Labour deficit than the 5% that was reported in the Guardian poll on Monday evening. A piece on the paper’s blog says it “puts the Tories, once again, clearly in the lead.” At this stage there are no numbers.

Meanwhile another ICM poll of marginal seats for the News of the World is being reported by Iain Dale. This says Tories “would sweep away 131 Labour MPs and win a healthy 64 seat majority.”

It was a similar ICM marginals poll last October that is said to have influenced Gordon Brown’s U-turn on a November general election. That suggested that 49 Labour seats would go.

These, it should be noted, are surveys of marginals and to try to extrapolate a national party share split is misleading.

…more follows when the news comes in….

Mike Smithson

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