Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend – a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election. To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:- ComRes C40:…
The only detail at the moment is from Andrew Grice’s blog at the paper. He writes: “If Gordon Brown was hoping that the row over his decision to abolish the 10p lower rate of income tax would not damage Labour, he’ll be very disappointed by the latest monthly ComRes survey for The Independent. The Tories have doubled their lead since last month from seven to 14 points, the biggest since ComRes began polling for the paper in September 2006.” That’s…
Is YouGov vs Ipsos-MORI the other big battle in the London election? In the picture above are the men who are probably the best known pollsters in the country who, in their individual ways have made major contributions to the way political opinion is tested in the UK. And both of them are on collision course over the projected outcome of the London Mayoral election. On the left is Peter Kellner who was a political journalist specialising in polling who…
Well done Don The first preference shares BORIS 46% (up 2%) and KEN 35% (down 2). After second preference YouGov are saying it is 55% to 45%. This puts the internet pollster totally out of line with MORI and MRUK which are both reporting that Ken is in the lead. I cannot recall a time when the polls have been so out of line in a critical election. The YouGov figures are so emphatic that it is hard to see…
Is this market manipulation or good information? As site regulars will know the one act that will lead directly to a permanent ban from our discussion threads is to put forward deliberately false information that could move betting markets. Last night there was a big move back to Boris in the Mayoral betting after somebody calling themself “Don” posted this :-“I’m going to take my courage in my hands and pass on a tip from a pretty reliable source (nb…
Is this a delayed reaction to the MORI and MRUK polls? Yesterday morning I expressed surprise that the MORI poll had had so little impact on the mayoral betting markets. Overnight Saturday we had the MRUK survey, also showing Ken with a narrow lead, and at first the markets seemed to take it in their stride. But this evening there has been a sharp move from Boris to Ken and it appears possible that the incumbent could find himself the…
So will it be Ken or Boris? – the PBC London Mayor Competition Just four days until London goes to the polls – who do you think will be the new Mayor and how will the various candidates fare? You will be asked to predict the first preference shares for Ken, Boris, and Brian, plus the BNP, Greens, Left List, and UKIP, and then the final vote share for your predicted overall winner. (Final vote share is winner’s total votes…