Can the government hold on for victory in the Commons? Ben Brogan has quoted the PM’s spokesman as saying if the vote were held now “the Government would not have enough votes to win”, and also that there is no deal with the DUP. Currently Betfair offers 3 on a defeat for the government although it has traded as high as 25. Ireland votes tomorrow in the referendum (the islands off Donegal voted on Monday) with the Yes side a…
A Guest slot by HenryG Let’s make no bones about it, the survival of the Labour Party is now heavily reliant on funding from trade unions in the short to medium term. As a result, trade union influence appears to be a topic discussed more and more. Yesterday’s Guardian includes details of some of the action at the GMB annual conference. The report gives a clear message that MPs will be named and funding withdrawn from their constituency parties if…
Might the GOP nominating McCain cause a win-win for the Democrats? This is not a year to be associated with the Republican National Congressional Committees. As well as failing to keep up with the fundraising on the Democratic side of the aisle, it seem that the GOP may suffer some significant losses in the November Congressional Elections as well. The 2006 Mid-Terms saw the Democrats win 233-202 in the US House of Representatives, making Nancy Pelosi (CA-08) the first female…
Mike Smithson and Peter the Punter have asked me to draw your attention to an important date for your diaries – the fifth PoliticalBetting.com party! Taking the form of a barbeque, we will once again be meeting at the National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. All are invited to join us on Thursday 19th June 2008, from 6pm until whenever we are asked to leave. As always, it will be a pay-on-the-door event (the princely sum of £20…
Just imagine that this weekend or next Gordon calls Andrew Marr into Number 10 for a live interview on Sunday morning. Just imagine that when the TV crew are setting up it becomes clear that Gordon and Sarah are going to do this together. Just imagine the programme opening with close-up shots of the two of them with smiles all over their faces and then, looking totally relaxed, him telling Marr that “some things are more important than work” and…
Populus has Cameron’s Tories leading by 20% This is becoming so normal that it is hardly news any more – another devastating poll blow for Gordon Brown’s Labour government and this time from the firm that generally shows the party in a better light. The numbers from the June Populus poll for the Times are: CON 45% (+5): 25% (-4): LD 20% (+1). Fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday so the party shares do not seem to have been…
How much credence should we give to polls two years before the day? There’s a great facility on the ICM website for those who want to check back on polling history. Just restricted to those commissioned by the Guardian, which is by far and away the longest media relationship in the UK industry, you can sort results how you like and, of course, check back on each monthly survey and compare it with the following general election. Just before Christmas…
Is the Irish vote going down to the wire? With just four days until Ireland votes in the only referendum to be held on the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, recent polls give a contradictory picture. The TNS poll out a few days ago has been the only poll so far to show the No side in the lead, by 35-30, but with a massive 35% of respondents undecided. However, a Red C poll this weekend has shown the Yes camp back…