Mike Smithson and Peter the Punter have asked me to draw your attention to an important date for your diaries – the fifth PoliticalBetting.com party! Taking the form of a barbeque, we will once again be meeting at the National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. All are invited to join us on Thursday 19th June 2008, from 6pm until whenever we are asked to leave. As always, it will be a pay-on-the-door event (the princely sum of £20…
Just imagine that this weekend or next Gordon calls Andrew Marr into Number 10 for a live interview on Sunday morning. Just imagine that when the TV crew are setting up it becomes clear that Gordon and Sarah are going to do this together. Just imagine the programme opening with close-up shots of the two of them with smiles all over their faces and then, looking totally relaxed, him telling Marr that “some things are more important than work” and…
Populus has Cameron’s Tories leading by 20% This is becoming so normal that it is hardly news any more – another devastating poll blow for Gordon Brown’s Labour government and this time from the firm that generally shows the party in a better light. The numbers from the June Populus poll for the Times are: CON 45% (+5): 25% (-4): LD 20% (+1). Fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday so the party shares do not seem to have been…
How much credence should we give to polls two years before the day? There’s a great facility on the ICM website for those who want to check back on polling history. Just restricted to those commissioned by the Guardian, which is by far and away the longest media relationship in the UK industry, you can sort results how you like and, of course, check back on each monthly survey and compare it with the following general election. Just before Christmas…
Is the Irish vote going down to the wire? With just four days until Ireland votes in the only referendum to be held on the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, recent polls give a contradictory picture. The TNS poll out a few days ago has been the only poll so far to show the No side in the lead, by 35-30, but with a massive 35% of respondents undecided. However, a Red C poll this weekend has shown the Yes camp back…
Is ICM a further indication of a “sea-change” in opinion? It is a sign of the times that when news of the latest ICM poll started to emerge last night the terms used were simply that the Conservatives had “a healthy lead”. I assumed that meant a margin of perhaps 12-13% ahead and just a little bit better for Gord than the previous ICM low – a 14% Labour deficit – that we saw in the May Guardian poll. The…
According to the Telegraph blog there’s a new ICM poll in the paper tomorrow that shows a “healthy” Tory lead. No figures are available. This is the first survey from the pollster since Crewe and Nantwich and it will be interesting to see if the figures are much different from the last survey by the pollster two and a half weeks ago that had C41-L27-LD22. More follows when the detail is available. Mike Smithson (still on holiday in southern Spain)…
The Democratic Party battle comes to a close Click on the panel for the AP story. On a personal note I feel a little sad. Latest betting on the Presidency itself is here. Mike Smithson