Can she make Pennsylvania about whether she can continue? Unlike many I remain to be convinced that Hillary’s nomination prospects are totally doomed. She has shown when the chips have been down that women, particularly older ones, will flock to back her if she can make the contest an issue of whether she stays in or not. The current idea that the party is ganging up on her to stop her proceeding could resonate well in the next primary in…
Con 38 (-3) Lab 31 (+1) Lib Dem 17 (n/c) A poll out tonight by ComRes for the Independent shows a lead of seven points for the Conservatives, down by four since the previous poll. Fieldwork was 28-30 March and the unweighted base was 1004 respondents. The Tories are down by three on 38 percent, Labour up by one to 31, and the Lib Dems are unchanged on 17 – it remains to be seen what impact Nick Clegg’s interview…
Should you be capitalising on the lies about the 2004 polls? The Labour spin machine has gone into overdrive today to try to discredit the latest YouGov poll that shows Ken Livingstone again facing a double digit polling deficit in his battle with Boris Johnson. A statement by the party said: “…YouGov has a record of significantly underestimating Ken Livingstone’s vote in London. On the day before the last Mayoral election YouGov put put Ken Livingstone just two per cent…
Boris 47, Ken 37, Brian 10 – Boris leads 56-44 after second preferences A new poll out today for the Evening Standard / ITV London Tonight shows Boris Johnson, who officially opened his campaign today, with a 10-point lead over Ken Livingstone, while the Lib Dems’ Brian Paddick trails on 10% of first preferences. After re-allocating second preferences, this translates into a 12-point lead for Boris of 56-44, or a swing of about 11% from the performance of Steve Norris…
Could the City Hall outcome be a marker for Downing Street? If London ITV is following its normal pattern then either today or tomorrow we should see a new opinion poll of voters in the capital on the London mayoralty. The organisation commissioned a YouGov survey at the end of every month since December and let us hope that it is following the normal pattern. I took last week’s news, which wasn’t as far as I know denied, that Downing…
The Illinois senator claims a nine delegate caucus lead? One of the aspects of politics that I find absolutely intriguing is how the contenders and parties deal with the sheer mechanics. Consider the challenge facing Team Hillary and Team Obama yesterday as they sought to manage the 88,000 people who were elected in the caucuses that followed the Texas primary on March 4th. This weekend they attend dozens of district and county conventions at which 7.298 of were be elected…
Politics in the newspapers as Summer Time begins The Sunday Times reports that a leaked Home Office memo shows that hundreds of illegal immigrants are working in care homes in the UK, while Brown has been condemned as “stilted and lacking personality” by one of his own Downing Street insiders. According to The Mail on Sunday, Westminster insiders privately predict that the scale of the expenditure on refurbishing his residence could be the final straw for the beleaguered Speaker, following…
What can we expect from the Keystone State? For Barack Obama the last fortnight, since his failure to decisively see-off Hillary Clinton in Ohio and Texas, has been particularly bruising. The incendiary comments of his pastor Jeremiah Wright and the remarks of Geraldine Ferraro have thrust the issue of race back to the fore of the presidential campaign. Addressing the issue with his trademark eloquence and candour on Wednesday it is still unclear what (if anything) the Illinois Senator has…