PSO Glasgow poll had no “certainty to vote” question

PSO Glasgow poll had no “certainty to vote” question

Is this why Labour was so far ahead? After my moan this morning about Progressive Scottish Opinion, the pollster that carried out last week’s Scottish Daily Mail Glasgow East poll, the information has been released to me within the past hour and two things stand out:- Although respondents were asked how they voted at the general election this does not appear to have been used to weight the sample. The stated weightings were that it should be “be representative of…

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What price will the SNP move out to?

What price will the SNP move out to?

When is the best time to get your bet on? I have no idea who is going to win the Glasgow East by election on Thursday. The latest poll at the weekend gives it to Labour by a whopping 17% margin but comes from a pollster that is not a British Polling Council member and so far has ignored my written requests for the data and the detail on how the survey was carried out. The failure to provide PB…

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Labour’s ICM deficit down to 15%

Labour’s ICM deficit down to 15%

Could the worst now be over for Labour? The July poll from ICM for the Guardian is out this evening and shows a small recovery for Labour. After June’s 20% deficit the July poll has it down to just 15%. It says something about the current political environment that this should be seen as good news for Brown and his ministers. Even so such a poll, if repeated in a general election, would according to the Anthony Wells calculator, produce…

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Is this the only BBC coverage of YouGov over 6 years?

Is this the only BBC coverage of YouGov over 6 years?

Why does the Corporation operate as though the firm doesn’t exist? Each month the BBC’s political research editor, David Cowling, “reviews the political opinion polls published in the UK”. It’s a moderately interesting piece but there’s one oddity – polls from the internet firm YouGov which put the traditional pollsters to shame in the London Mayoral race never seem to get a mention. I’ve scanned through each of his pieces for every month this year and I cannot find any…

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Is Brown’s plight much worse than John Major’s?

Is Brown’s plight much worse than John Major’s?

Do these 95-97 ICM polls undermine the swing-back theorists? Anybody trying to predict whether Brown’s Labour has any chance at all of turning things round should look at the above table very carefully. For it shows all the Guardian’s ICM surveys for the period from 21 months before the May 1 1997 general election which, of course, brought Blair’s Labour to power in a landslide. Just compare the polling figures from the August of 1995 with what happened at the…

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Will the SNP knock out the pollsters on Thursday?

Will the SNP knock out the pollsters on Thursday?

Will Labour’s position, once again, have been massively overstated? Those who are basing their betting on Labour in Glasgow on the opinion polls should be warned – the pollsters have a long record of over-stating the party’s position and, occasionally of getting the outcome wrong. Just look at the record:- Hartlepool September 2004: The only poll suggested that Labour would hold onto the seat by margin of 33%. On the day the party won by 7%. Labour’s position was overstated…

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In the Sunday papers

In the Sunday papers

SNP internal poll shows them just 4 points behind in Glasgow East Four days ahead of Glasgow East, the Sunday Herald is reporting SNP internal polling that shows them behind by just 4 points, while Labour internal polling shows that it will be “as tight as hell” – a 3-figure majority now looks likely. Latest Glasgow East prices are here. The Scotland on Sunday considers the impact that the Glasgow Fair is having on the campaign, while Geoffrey Wheatcroft portrays…

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Labour drop to a record low with ComRes

Labour drop to a record low with ComRes

National poll blow for Brown ahead of Glasgow East The figures from ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday are just out and show Labour with a record low share from the pollster. Please note the comparisons above are from the last survey by the pollster – not the last survey in the Indy on Sunday. Newspapers always seem to assume that the comparisons we want are those from the last poll they published – not the last one from the…

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