How is this going to impact on the fight with McCain? As we wait for the Glasgow polls to close the big international political story has been Obama’s speech in Berlin. You can watch it in full here. American election betting – live prices. Mike Smithson
How good a predictor is this? The chart shows how the Betfair prices on the by election have moved in the past twelve hours with the odds reflected as an implied probability. If there is any information coming from on the ground then it’s hard to detect it having an impact. Certainly there’s nothing happened so far that has caused SNP backers to feel confident about backing their choice to tighter prices. The general experience of by elections is that…
How the PB community split at 2.15 am I’m not normally a great fan of instant online quickie polls like the one we did yesterday on people’s forecasts for today’s Glasgow East by-election. Those who take part are self-selecting and the technical savvy could vote more than once. Yet the result that’s come out totally reflects my own view of what will happen today. This is a 50-50 shot even though the betting markets make Labour the 0.31/1 odds-on favourite….
What happens when the third party works – but doesn’t win? A strongly argued post by the Norfolk Blogger, Nick Starling, has been picked up by several in the blogsphere for the way it powerfully sets out the dilemma facing the Lib Dems. Reflecting on the massive changes in the political scene Nick notes that Cameron has “turned around the fortunes of the Conservative “brand”, removed the tarnish from it and has stopped people feeling embarrassed to be openly Tory….
Who do you think will win tomorrow’s Glasgow East by election? Labour SNP Conservatives Lib Dems Which party will finish in third place? Conservatives Lib Dems Another
Will this increase the nervousness amongst MPs in the marginals? The pollster which has been operating in the UK for longer than anybody else has just published their Monitor for July 2008 and it shows a move towards the Conservatives and the biggest lead for the party in decades. These are the figures with comparisons on a month ago CON 47% (+2): LAB 27% (-2): LD 15% (-2). These figures, like all MORI surveys are based on those “certain to…
What have the double digit leads done for expectation management? One of the main tasks for party spinners ahead of any election these days is to down-play your chances on the Thursday. For a failure to achieve an outcome that has been widely expected is much much worse than if everybody thinks that the party was going to go down anyway. Given the precarious position of Labour and Mr. Brown nationally the Glasgow East aftermath is going to be much…
For one week in August, Politicalbetting.com will be reporting from Denver Back in March, I sent in some application forms to the DNC and RNC so that PoliticalBetting.com could be credentialled alongside other media outlets to cover the Nominating Conventions from Denver and Minneapolis-St. Paul respectively. The RNC gave us an unequivocal rejection (the Right seems less interested in what Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) called “a Series of Tubes“ than the Left) but the Democrats have made some accommodation for…