Are we going to see a record Labour deficit?

Are we going to see a record Labour deficit?

What record will be broken later today? John Rentoul has news on his blog that there is a significant poll to be published in the Independent on Sunday, expected from ComRes later today. He writes: “We have a ComRes poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow. Another record will be broken. We have also asked people whether they agree or disagree with the following statements: Britain should never have become involved in Iraq British troops should be withdrawn from Iraq…

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How audacious is Obama prepared to be?

How audacious is Obama prepared to be?

Could a daring move could seal the Election early? Very few people would fail to recognise the talents of Senator Obama as a campaigning politician. His oratory is uplifting, his intellect apparent, his energy and youth appealing, and his campaign not only made the most of new technology, but didn’t sacrifice the benefits of old-fashioned door knocking and lawn signs either. He beat one of the toughest opponents imagineable in the primary season, and now enjoys a massive fundraising advantage…

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Non-registered pollster gives Labour a 17% by-election lead

Non-registered pollster gives Labour a 17% by-election lead

But how much can we trust a pollster that’s not in the BPC? Ben Brogan is carrying a report that a new poll for the Scottish Daily Mail has Labour 17% ahead in Glasgow East. This comes as the campaign goes into its final weekend. The pollster, Progressive Scottish Opinion, is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council and it is hard from its website to work out what its methodological approach is. We do not know…

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PB Election Countdown: What makes marginals different?

PB Election Countdown: What makes marginals different?

Blair Freebairn on where the election will be decided (This is a repeat of a guest contribution that was featured last October and offered a an original and convincing insight into the characteristics of the key battle-grounds. Blair’s piece has had a big impact on my thinking and I thought it would be worth a second run – MS) The Pirahã tribe of the Amazon has words for one, two and many. Number-wise that’s it. The count for an STV…

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Is this the backcloth to Clegg’s tax cutting approach?

Is this the backcloth to Clegg’s tax cutting approach?

What should the Lib Dems do when the Tories are advancing? The latest Lib Dem approach to taxation and public spending is very different from what we are used to from the party – remember the penny extra in the pound for education and them being the only party at previous elections prepared to increase rates for the well off? This is going to cause fierce debates within Clegg’s party but I wonder whether the new young leader is sensing…

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Is it time to be coming off the fence on Glasgow?

Is it time to be coming off the fence on Glasgow?

Should we be taking the SNP at 13/8 before it gets tighter? In the past few days the price on the SNP in next Thursday’s Glasgow East by election has been steadily tightening and now the best bookmaker price you can get is 13/8. I had been holding back my personal betting but I’ve now come to the conclusion that current prices might not last and have put a few hundred on the SNP. Although I still make Labour the…

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Does Labour still have a 28% chance of victory?

Does Labour still have a 28% chance of victory?

Surely the price should have moved out much more? As we end the parliamentary year I thought it would be useful to look at how punters have seen the next general election since the market was opened just after the last one in May 2005. The chart tracks the betting prices on “who will win most seats” expressed as an implied probability. The remarkable thing, given all the gloom and doom about Labour’s prospects from the Westminster village, is how…

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