Is this the way to minimise another humiliating defeat? Â The Guardian writer Martin Kettle is one of many commentators to say that the timing of the Glenrothes by-election would be a major factor in determining whether or not Brown lives to fight another day. Since the death of John MacDougall, the Labour majority of 10,664 has been assessed and found to be unsafe in the face of the likely challenge of the SNP. It requires a smaller swing than…
Or will the move just highlight the slowness of the government’s response? In what appears to be a highly unusual move for an opposition leader it’s been announced that David Cameron is to fly out to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, tomorrow to meet political leaders. The move seems designed to show solidarity and international support for a government and country that must have felt very isolated in the past few days. On the domestic front Cameron’s move will highlight the…
Is it worth following the university “experts” or the punters? Back in November 2006 the body for politics academics in Britain’s universities, the Political Studies Association, commissioned a MORI poll to find our how their members viewed the then political situation and the prospects for the parties. At the time the betting markets had the hung parliament option as the most likely general election outcome and the split in the “most seats” betting was CON 55%-LAB 45%. The latest polls…
Could the Clintons “hog” the convention limelight? The big overnight news is that Hillary’s name will be going forward to a roll call vote on the Tuesday leaving open the remote possibility that she could still win. The Obama team has agreed to this as a means of keeping some of the most ardent Hillary supporters on board. About 45% of the delegates are for Hillary and the big danger for Obama is that the media could build this up…
What do we think of “The Fink’s” thesis? There’s an interesting piece on Times Online today by Daniel Finkelstein who argues that in every general election over the past 80 years the voters have chosen the party that was most right to run the country at the time. He writes: “The proposition is that in every contest in these last 80 years the party that was more fit to govern has been victorious. Sometimes both of the main offerings were…
Why is Bill due to speak just before just before the V-P nominee? An intriguing piece of news overnight is the report that Bill Clinton, whose relationship with Obama has never been easy, has been given the slot at the Denver convention just before the V-P nominee. This can only mean, surely, that the chosen person is totally acceptable to the Clintons and, indeed, might be a major part of the healing between the two factions that has become so…
With Barack Obama expected to announce at any time the name of his running mate every little bit of detail is being scrutinised to the nth degree to try to guess who the chosen one will be. One person who had been highly tipped was the former Governor of Virginia and, incidentally, was alongside Obama one of my two long-shot tips for the President in 2005 and 2006. Last night the announcement that he would be speaking on the Tuesday…
Is there any chance of holding on in the seat next door? Above are some recycling bins in Glenrothes – the Fife constituency next to Gordon’s where Labour’s next by-election nightmare looks set to take place. This follows the death, reported earlier in the day, of John MacDougall who had been an MP for seven years. With Labour getting 51.9% of the vote last time to the SNP’s 23.4% the election would in normal times be a Labour hold on…