Is the idea of swingback just an anti-Tory fantasy? Yesterday on one of the threads I got into an argument with a poster who asserted “…But no-one seriously expects the actual election to mirror the current polls.” Well this flies in the face of what has happened at the last three general elections. I know we have had this debate before but I thought it might be useful to set out the polling at exactly the same point – 20…
How could Barack choose someone with this record? With the announcement of Obama’s V-P choice said to be getting quite imminent big question marks have been raised over the current strong favourite – Evan Bayh – the telegenic senator from Indiana who was a strong Clinton backer. As the New York Times puts it: “Bayh’s support of authorizing force in Iraq stands in sharp contrast to Mr. Obama’s oft-stated view that he showed the good judgment to oppose the conflict…
What we need to know is how people will vote? As someone who uses polls to try to predict elections and win bets I’ve always been very wary of polling questions which ask respondents for their opinion – not for an indication of what they would do in an election. This based on the last two general elections only about 60% of people actually vote so the results you get from the opinion questions are distorted by the views of…
Does the government need to do less – but do it better? A powerful critique by former minister, Nick Raynsford, in the latest New Statesman of the efforts by the Brown government to win back public support has been picked up by many of the papers this morning. Inevitably this is being seen as part of the moves to back the leadership ambitions of David Miliband. Ranysford writes: “…There is no single ‘Get Out of Jail’ card, and it is…
There’s speculation on the US site, VP Watch, this evening that Barack Obama might be considering the former general and 2004 contender for the presidential nomination – Wes Clarke – for the VP slot. This is the report: “Gen. Wes Clark’s slogan — “Securing America’s Future” — is the theme for the night Barack Obama’s running mate is scheduled to speak at the Democratic National Convention. Clark’s political action committee is called WESPAC — Securing America’s Future. It could just…
His final PMQs before the 2007 recess and the election U-turn If you’ve got a few minutes just click on the picture above to watch Brown take the last PMQs of July 2007 when everything was going so right for him. Watching his body language, listening to a very different intonation in his voice, looking at how he dealt with Cameron and it is as though you are in a different era. He’s relaxed, confident, and delivered very effectively the…
How can they select someone who could make matters worse? The only point for Labour to go through the pain of changing the leader again is to improve the party’s chances at the next election. In June 2007, as I keep on reminding people, Labour MPs ignored the overwhelming polling evidence, that has since been proved correct, that Gordon would be an electoral disaster. So how are we to assess the reports that a union-backed joint Johnson-Cruddas ticket is being…
Is McCain’s plan for a ‘League of Democracies’ the answer? On May Day of last year, John McCain addressed the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in California. As the Republican primary candidate with the most foreign policy experience, his remarks received a significant amount of attention. The key idea in the speech was that, if elected President, McCain would call a summit of the Democratically-elected world leaders, and discuss with them how global problems might be solved. He described the…