Oldies are most likely to be affected Those of us who have been following politics for some time will remember how important a policy the pension triple lock was at GE2010. This ensures that the state pension rises each year in accordance with prices, earnings or 2.5% which ever is the highest. Based on current trends as the Express is reporting that pensioners should be getting an 8.5% uplift this year. That does not now look likely if the reports…
So far none of the major parties has managed to dominate the betting in the October 19th mid Beds by-election and as can be seen the LD. CON and LAB odds are very close to each other. All three of them think they can win so the betting is not really a guide to what’s going to happen. The LDs are the current favourite and that’s partly down to their extremely successful by-election record this parliament in which they have…
Since 1988, the Republicans have won the Presidential popular vote only once, in 2004. Popular opinion is that the recent Republican Electoral College advantage is somehow immutable. It is not. Indeed, 2024 could see Trump win the popular vote, and Biden the Presidency. Simply: Trump has gained share in States which are either Democratic strongholds (New York and California) or in places where he already has the delegates (Florida and the Deep South). By contrast, Trump and the Republicans have…
How much better would a different leader be doing ? These latest numbers from YouGov are very much in the line with what we have been seeing from other pollsters. It is now hard to see how the PM could turn it round. The Tories are stuck with someone who is an electoral liability and looks set to lead the party to a whopping defeat. At the moment there does not appear to be much appetite in the Tory party…
I fear they’re going to be disappointed We are now barely 15 months from the maximum time that this parliament can last and I think we’re going to see a lot more polling questions like the above on whether people want an early vote. The only problem with this is that I cannot see Sunak wanting to go to the country early when he’s not assured of a victory. It might be that if the polling changed and the Tories…
TSE
I believe in the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose elections and this government has done more than most governments to lose the next election and expectation we are on course for a 1997 style result but I have my doubts. My primary doubt is because of the position Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer. Starmer started on 202 MPs and even before boundary changes Starmer has to make a net gain of 124 seats to…
Back in February talk emerged about Liz Truss making a comeback and looking to regain the Tory leadership, I still have my doubts on such a comeback and this polling just reinforces my view given as just 7% think her premiership went well which is the same number of Brits also say they have seen a UFO. I know parties do stupid things in opposition (see the leaderships of Iain Duncan Smith and Jeremy Corbyn as most infamous examples) but…