Why I have doubts about Labour winning a majority

Why I have doubts about Labour winning a majority

I believe in the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose elections and this government has done more than most governments to lose the next election and expectation we are on course for a 1997 style result but I have my doubts.

My primary doubt is because of the position Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer. Starmer started on 202 MPs and even before boundary changes Starmer has to make a net gain of 124 seats to win a majority of just 2. Since the end of World War Two only one Leader of the Opposition has made that many gains and just two Leaders of the Opposition have made over 100 net gains.

Comparing Starmer's Ipsos net satisfaction rating to Tony Blair's ratings at this equivalent of the political cycle. The latest Ipsos figures are for July 2023 which is 43 months after 2019 general election, so I have chosen Blair's ratings for November 1995. Starmer's ratings aren't as impressive as Blair's, who had a net positive rating whereas Starmer has a net negative rating.

Starmer's lead over Sunak isn't as good Blair's lead over John Major.

In the 1992 Parliament the Tories lost every by election they contested with some truly spectacular losses to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, yet we've had the hold in Uxbridge & South Ruislip and in the next month it isn't inconceivable to see two more Tory holds in Tamworth and Mid Beds which again doesn't give off 1997 vibes.

Labour to win most seats and votes seems nailed on but a Labour majority, there's enough evidence available to make the latter a doubt and that is impacting my betting stratregy.


Comments are closed.