Will this be the big election betting market Betfair has just introduced a new form of betting for the general election – called line betting – which seems ideal for a betting exchange where individual punters fix the prices through what they are prepared to offer rather than this being done by the bookmaker. So how does it work? Look at the panel above and you’ll see sells in the blue shaded area and buys in the pink shaded one….
Is it just the political nerds who are interested? After such an intensive period of dramatic political developments I just wonder how this is going down amongst the voters at large. Are they really responding in the way that the Westminster village seems to be and, of course, posters on PB’s threads which are now running to record lengths? Or could it be that when the next polls come out over the weekend and early next week that we don’t…
Times Online What chances her survival if the Green case is dropped? At the end of November, less than a day after the police raid on Damian Green’s offices in the Palace of Westminster, I placed as much as William Hill would allow me at 7/4 that Jacqui Smith would move from being home secretary at some time before the general election. In spite of everything that bet is still outstanding. The price later tightened to 6/4 and the time…
..and will the site he created go on? The news that LabourList’s Derek Draper is considering resigning because of the fallout from the ‘dirty tricks’ scandal means that that Guido might have taken his second scalp. But what’s Derek going to do next and what’s going to happen to LabourList – the website he established less than three months ago? I’ve hardly looked at it for weeks but a quick scan this evening suggests that it is starting to develop…
ICM Research May 1994 Did Blair concede too much at the Granita? We all know about the famous dinner at the Granita in Islington at the end of May 1994 which has shaped British politics ever since. For Brown came away from that meeting thinking that he had Blair’s backing as the heir apparent in exchange for not pursuing his own candidature. Yet just looking back at the polling of the period this seems crazy. Brown was simply not in…
Best Labour leadership odds Are Johnson and the two Eds the big losers? Until last Thursday my “picks” as Brown’s replacement were Alan Johnson if there was a contest before the general election and Ed Balls if it took place afterwards. My view was that the former’s more conciliatory style and background might make him an ideal choice to face Cameron while Ed Balls had, the formidable Damien McBride on his team. Other bets placed in the past five months,…
Sporting Index Spread Markets PB “The Money Says Index”: CON MAJ 59 (+4) After our piece this morning and the “Smeargate” developments during the day the money has been going against Labour on the spread betting markets – where really serious political gamblers trade the number of seats that the parties will get at at the election as though they were stocks and shares. After a day of some activity the
BBC news online “SmearGate” continues to have traction We are now into a fourth successive news cycle and Downing Street is still finding it hard to move on to other things. The BBC is still leading on the story with Sky continuing to put it high up the bulletins. It’s not helped by the less than convincing letters that Gordon Brown sent yesterday. If these had been unequivocal then that might have stemmed the flood of bad headlines. They weren’t,…