What chances her survival if the Green case is dropped?
At the end of November, less than a day after the police raid on Damian Green’s offices in the Palace of Westminster, I placed as much as William Hill would allow me at 7/4 that Jacqui Smith would move from being home secretary at some time before the general election. In spite of everything that bet is still outstanding.
The price later tightened to 6/4 and the time period limited to “this year” but I know that quite a few PBers have financial interests in the future of the Home Secretary.
Today the Green affair moves forward a couple of notches. A report by a committee of MPs is coming out suggesting that the seriousness of the leaks to the Tory front bencher had been exaggerated and Green himself will learn what’s happening to the criminal case against him.
If, as is expected, the case is being dropped then a whole can of worms will be opened up – for what happened six months ago was without precedent and went right to the heart of an MP’s role.
For as has been pointed out repeatedly securing leaks and seeking to embarrass the government has been a long-standing weapon for opposition parties for generations. A key exponent during the Tory years was one Gordon Brown as is seen here during a BBC interview with Frank Bough.
The focus after today’s likely news will be on Jacqui Smith. My guess is that we won’t get to a point where there’s a resignation now but she might move on in a post-EU elections cabinet re-shuffle. The stated reason will be that she needs to put the time into holding her ultra-marginal constituency of Redditch.